Akkan Suver: "Decision on Caspian Sea status crucial to future of region"

This is a proposal that Dr. Akkan Suver will offer at a session on the "Political Dynamics in the Caspian Region: Present Challenges and the Future." This is part of a two-day conference entitled "Caspian Outlook 2008" organized by the Foreign Affairs Ministry in Bled, Slovenia.

Suver, who is president of the Marmara Group Strategic and Social Research Foundation, a group that has been active in promoting Eurasian cooperation, believes there needs to be an international agreement as to whether the Caspian is a sea, lake or water resource. Until that occurs, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will be unable to build pipelines under that body of water to transport gas and oil to Russia and Europe.

"Caspian Region symbolizes a bigger struggle for power. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, just like what happened in the 19th century between Tsar's Russia and Great Britain, global powers have struggled to enhance their power in the region. Today, the United States has taken the place of Great Britain. In addition to Russia, other regional powers like China, Turkey and Iran are also parties to this struggle," says Suver.

"Brzezinski defines the Eurasian region with its rich energy resources as the 'Grand Prize'," Suver continues. "Accordingly, it is reasonable to expect that the United States will not allow developments in the region to challenge its prevalent global position. In its struggle to dominate the international arena, the United States will continue its policies to control the energy resources of world. The United States managed to open military bases in Asia after Sept. 11. As long as countries such as China, Russia, India and Iran have the potential to turn their back on America, the United States is not likely to pull out of this region. In the coming years, it is expected that the United States will continue to strengthen its position in the region."

Pointing out that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline help the U.S. tie its European NATO ally Turkey to its Eurasian ally Azerbaijan, Suver stressed that the future depended on how the United States supported the resolution of the Caspian Sea's status.

Since Russia's economic development in the short term depends on the export of energy, that country will have to continue its influence over the Caspian Sea countries. On the other hand, China with its short fall in energy until 2030 also has a strong interest in the area. The United States needs to exert its influence there since it has to try to balance Russian and Chinese interests in preventing them from becoming too strong.

Suver suggests: "Iran is likely to accept the leadership of Russia in the region instead of an American presence. It can be argued that Iran will launch an effort to improve its relationship with neighboring countries in order to end its political isolation. This effort will lead Iran to be sensitive in its foreign policy engagements and its Islamic activities. It is crucial for Iran to be a transit country in the transfer of energy resources from the Caspian Region. Therefore, Iran will continue its efforts to carry gas from Turkmenistan and oil from Kazakhstan to the international markets. The United States' attitude toward Iran is still uncertain. U.S. foreign policy and the reactions it creates in Russia and China will determine Iran's plans. If, though seems unlikely, the United States lifts its sanctions on Iran and supports the transfer of oil and gas from and through that country, then Iran will be a big player in the energy sector which, in turn, may weaken Turkey's role as an energy transit route."

According to Suver, the role of the European Union, as a weaker player in the area, will most likely be directed at economic stability in the area rather than regional security that concerns the U.S.

"Turkey's role in the Caspian Region is to transfer energy sources to the international markets fast, secure and on time," Suver suggested. "Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline - built with the initiative of Turkey and the support of the U.S. - will transfer oil to the world markets and contribute to the economic development of the countries of the region. For the pipeline to be used in full capacity and with high efficiency, Kazakh oil needs to be transferred through the line in addition to the Azeri oil. Turkey will also gain an important role when Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum and Turkmenistan-Turkey-Europe gas pipelines become a reality. Turkey will play a role in preserving the security of the valuable energy resources of the Caspian region and their transfer to Europe."

In conclusion, Suver predicts: "Insufficient economic, social and political development in the countries of the region, security issues, the presence of valuable energy resources, and the pursuit of their national interest by Turkey, the Russian Federation, China, the EU and the U.S. all contribute their share to the emergence of regional problems. There is need for national, regional and international cooperation in order to overcome these problems. Efforts for cooperation will benefit all the parties as well as help achieve and preserve stability and security in the region."

/Turkish Daily News/