Institute for War & Peace Reporting: "Caspian military exercise highlights region's weakness"

The Rubezh-2006 exercise, organised within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, CSTO, is due to take place on August 24-29 near the Kazak port city of Aktau. It will be the first joint military exercise undertaken by CSTO countries, and will involve 2,500 members drawn from various armed services of member states, with Russia, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan the principal participants. Uzbekistan, which has recently rejoined the CSTO, will send observers, while the two other pact members, Belarus and Armenia, will not be taking part.

All the countries in the Caspian region are trying to secure their oil and gas resources from the threat of terrorism. An incident in this region, especially in a disputed territory, could lead to an international conflict, hit the economic and energy security of several countries at once, worsen the investment climate and cause severe ecological problems.

For Kazakstan, the safety of its Caspian infrastructure is of particular importance, since plans to increase energy exports over the next few years depend in large part on Caspian shelf production.

The growing militarisation is connected with mutual mistrust among countries in the region, say analysts. Iranian media have speculated that the United States is using Azerbaijan to create a military counterweight to Iran on the Caspian. It is possible that the exercise conducted by the CSTO – in which Russia is dominant – represents a response to concerns about United States involvement in developing Kazakstan's navy. Observers say Russia is leaning more and more towards the Iranian view that countries from outside should be banned from having armed forces in the Caspian Sea.

Experts say the US is indeed trying to step up the pressure on Iran, as well as to defend its own investments in Azerbaijan and Kazakstan. It is also trying to guarantee the security of the strategically vital Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

A military presence on the Caspian would give the United States an opportunity to at least partially offset its weakening influence in Central Asia, as seen in the closure of its airbase in Uzbekistan, the increased rent it is having to pay for the Manas base in Kyrgyzstan, and the diplomatic scandal that resulted in the expulsion of two Americans from Kyrgyzstan.

According to analysts, genuine security in the region can be achieved only if the military interests of all five Caspian countries are coordinated. At an international conference in Astrakhan in July 2005, Russia proposed the formation of a Caspian naval coordination group, but to date the initiative has not had much of a response.

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