Real energy returns: Azerbaijan is one step ahead again

The world cannot do without fossil fuels, the President of Azerbaijan said at the opening of the XXXI Baku Energy Forum.

"We are all striving to improve the climate for the sake of saving the planet. We all want to live in a more favorable environment. But today we must be very pragmatic and realistic when planning our future with energy security in mind, as well as investing in renewable energy sources. I think this is the way forward," President Ilham Aliyev said.

The President of Azerbaijan was the first head of a mining state who, a few years ago, at the height of the "green" campaign, spoke directly and boldly about the need for realism in the issue of energy transition. While the powers peremptorily talked about the imminent decarbonization, and the world's oil and gas companies hastily shifted to "green" projects and changed their names, fearing they would be left behind, the leader of a small country in the South Caucasus pointed out the gaps in their plans to the powerful.

President Ilham Aliyev said at the opening ceremony of COP29 in Baku: "Oil, gas, wind, sun, gold, silver, copper are all natural resources. Countries cannot be blamed for having these resources. Also, they should not be blamed for bringing these resources to the market. Because the market needs them. People need them. So, here's my message: As president of COP29, we will, of course, strongly advocate for a "green" transition, and we are doing this. But at the same time, we have to be realistic."

We emphasize that this was said at the opening of the world climate conference, the main trend of which is the fight for clean energy and the abandonment of traditional fuels. The position voiced by President Ilham Aliyev was not popular at all, but the President of Azerbaijan is one of those politicians who are not afraid to express an opinion that differs from the majority opinion. He is not afraid to tell the truth, which many will obviously disagree with. Baku's policy is based on realism and pragmatism.

At the opening of the XXXI Baku Energy Forum, the Azerbaijani leader particularly thanked US President Donald Trump for changing the unrealistic trend. President Ilham Aliyev stressed that President Trump deserves gratitude for bringing the energy situation back to normal. Prior to this, mining countries were vilified and often blackmailed. President Trump has reversed this trend.

The atmosphere around the topic of decarbonization really began to change immediately after Trump was elected President of the United States. The new head of the White House, unlike the previous administration, turned out to be an opponent of the green agenda, which inspired those who opposed it in Europe itself. Recall that Donald Trump declared invalid the document from 2009, recognizing greenhouse gases as harmful to health. Trump called the so-called "endanger finding", adopted under Barack Obama, catastrophic and seriously damaging to the US automotive industry. This decision, as many observers believe, put an end to the actively promoted policy of decarbonization and denigration of fossil fuels in recent years.

President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly pointed out in his speeches that countries should not be condemned for having oil and gas. On June 1, when opening the BEF, he once again stressed that oil and gas are commodities just like any other. And each country uses what it has in its bowels or on the seabed for its development. For example, oil and gas helped Azerbaijan to survive and preserve its independence.

"Countries should be assessed not by the presence or absence of oil, but by how they use their income. How they invest the funds accumulated from the development of energy in the development of the country in order to provide better living conditions for their citizens, how they invest in the issues of the green agenda. And I think the example of Azerbaijan can be very illustrative, to demonstrate that when you open your country to international investment and pursue a wise policy based on national interests, you succeed," President Ilham Aliyev said at the opening of the Baku Energy Forum.

Being an oil and gas producing country, Azerbaijan, nevertheless, continues to systematically develop clean energy. A lot has already been done in the country and continues to be done in terms of a "green" transition. The Garadagh solar and Khaza-Absheron wind power plants, the largest in the region, were built, and the largest battery energy storage center in the CIS was launched in March this year. The construction of wind and solar power plants in Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur continues. Baku is contributing to the green agenda as a potential supplier of clean energy to Europe, being part of the Black Sea Energy project, and is also building a Trans-Caspian energy cable with partners, through which electricity from Central Asia will flow to the West.

As a responsible country, Azerbaijan is aware of the importance of the climate agenda and the fulfillment of its commitments under the Paris Document. Climate change is a given, and Azerbaijan, like the rest of the world, is feeling the effects of negative processes. Baku is also seriously concerned about climate change. However, it has always been considered here that sudden movements in strategic matters are unacceptable. Radical approaches to decarbonization have brought the world to the brink of an energy crisis. It must be understood that the world cannot quickly abandon fossil fuels on orders from Brussels, not because of a lack of political will, but because of the deep dependence of the entire modern economy on oil, gas and coal. Transportation, industry, agriculture, world trade, and the production of most everyday goods are built on hydrocarbons. This is a reality, and ignoring it by the apologists of the "green" transition will only lead to a shaky global economy.

Azerbaijan stands for a gradual, reasonable and thoughtful transition. Of course, he also pursues his own interests in this matter. But are these interests important only to him? Those countries that have ensured their energy security through partnership with Azerbaijan will agree with Baku. For example, Italy. The Prime Minister of this country, Giorgia Meloni, speaking at the COP29 summit, said that currently there is no single alternative to the supply of fossil fuels, and called for a realistic global outlook and balance.

The energy crisis that the world is facing in connection with recent events in the Middle East has clearly shown what fossil fuels mean to the global economy. After all that happened, it became clear to everyone that in the coming decades we should not be talking about the complete disappearance of fossil fuels, but about finding a balance between energy security, economic development and climate commitments. Oil and gas are likely to remain an integral part of the global economy for a long time, even despite the expansion of the use of renewable energy sources.

Radical decarbonization has proven to be an overly complex and expensive process. And today, the complete abandonment of fossil fuels is no longer seen as an achievable goal in the medium term. The modern world, with its industrial content, cannot do without oil and gas. The transfer of polluting industries to third world countries, as has always been practiced by Western countries, also does not justify itself from a climatic point of view, since it does not change anything for the problems that have already formed on the planet.

The world is moving towards an energy transition, but it is premature to talk about a complete abandonment of fossil fuels in the foreseeable future. The reason lies not only in the energy sector, but also in the structure of the entire modern economy. Today, about 80 percent of the world's energy consumption is provided by fossil fuels. Despite the rapid growth of solar and wind power, humanity consumes over 100 million barrels of oil and tens of billions of cubic meters of gas annually. Attempts to reduce these figures have failed. It's simple - alternative energy sources are not yet able to guarantee stable energy supply at any time of the day and under any weather conditions. The sun doesn't shine at night, the wind doesn't blow all the time, and large-scale energy storage systems are expensive. It is not serious to make the economy dependent on the vagaries of nature. And what is especially noteworthy is that even those countries that are considered the flagships of the "green" transition are hesitant to completely abandon gas and coal.

In Europe, they claim that nuclear energy will save the situation. However, nuclear power plants pose even more risks to the planet than a turbine powered by fossil fuels.

Let's move on. Today, it is almost impossible to imagine global shipping, aviation, cargo, construction and agricultural machinery without petroleum products. If we approach the issue radically, then maritime trade, which accounts for 80 percent of the global trade turnover, will stop.

There is also a paradox when the world actively uses oil to build a "green" economy. The production of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries requires components that depend on petrochemicals. The same applies to gas. Experts say that without gas, fertilizer production will stop, and the result will be the destruction of food security in many countries. According to experts, a significant part of the global harvest directly depends on fertilizers produced on the basis of natural gas.

The countries of the so-called third world will especially feel the imbalance. For many of them, cheap and affordable hydrocarbons remain the only way to keep their economy afloat. 

There is one more "but". The massive transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy requires huge amounts of lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth metals. However, the extraction of these resources is in itself an energy-intensive process, which today is largely provided by diesel fuel, gas and coal. In addition, a limited number of countries have such resources, which means that unpleasant processes will certainly unfold in order to access them.

Until recently, the global economy has been developing on the basis of a well-developed and proven model. In order to maintain this stability and predictability, the most likely scenario for the coming decades is not the abandonment of fossil fuels, but a gradual reduction in its share in the global energy mix. This is the most reasonable approach, which Azerbaijan is successfully implementing.