Parallel worlds of European Union and South Caucasus

The priorities in relations between Armenia and the European Union, signed and announced last week, continue to be discussed in the Azerbaijani media space. But not because of envy or jealousy, as some Armenian analysts believe. Not at all. 

Azerbaijan has a special relationship with the EU. At Baku's insistence, they became such from the very beginning of the launch of the EU partnership program. Azerbaijan refused to sign the association agreement within the framework of the Eastern Partnership, rightly believing that it deserves a bilateral document with the European Union and more specific relations based on equality, mutual benefit and mutual interests. After all, unlike other Eastern Partnership member countries, in particular Armenia, Azerbaijan is an independent and independent player that helps Europe ensure its energy security and provides a transport and logistics alternative.

The partnership agreement with the EU has been discussed by the parties for many years. In December 2021, speaking at the Eastern Partnership Summit, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced that the work on the document was 90 percent completed.

In 2018, a document entitled "Partnership Priorities" was initialed. Azerbaijan has established strategic relations with many EU member states. However, there have been problems working on the document for a long time. One of them is the problem with the wording regarding the territorial integrity of our country, created by the Armenian side, which tried, and not unsuccessfully, to interfere in the text of the document. Today, when there is no more conflict and Azerbaijan has changed the geopolitical realities of the region, trade and economic issues remain, to which the parties have their own approach. Azerbaijan, unlike other Eastern Partnership countries, does not depend on the European Union. Of course, the EU has been and remains the country's largest economic partner, but it should be borne in mind that Azerbaijan is self-sufficient and cannot be ranked on a par with other EAP partners.

The partnership agreement is still not finalized for the reason that every now and then officials appear in the EU who begin to complicate this process. Moreover, even to the detriment of European interests. In 2022, an agreement was signed to double the supply of Azerbaijani gas to the EU, but the organization has not yet done anything to implement it, referring to the decarbonization policy. At the same time, requests for expanded supplies continue. This is not respectable for such a giant as the European Union. It should be understood that Azerbaijan will not do anything at its own expense, without even having long-term contracts. And relations will definitely not get better if the documents signed with Armenia contain formulations that contradict our interests.

There are many such moments in the priorities announced last week. We have already talked about this and will not go into details. Let's just briefly note that we are talking about the EU's promises to assist Armenia in the release of prisoners and in ensuring the implementation of resolutions of international judicial instances adopted on Armenia's claims against Azerbaijan. The EU has no right to interfere in such matters unless it is a member state of the European Union. Azerbaijan is not a member of the EU and has no plans in this regard. It turns out that the EU promises Armenia to put pressure on Baku to fulfill its promises. This is a very unfriendly approach, and Brussels should not be surprised that the announcement of priorities has caused a negative reaction in Azerbaijan.

And it's not just about the latest news. Unfortunately, in Europe, work against Azerbaijani interests has always found supporters. Yes, the lobby, the money of the diaspora, it's all clear. But this cannot be an excuse, because the interests of the Armenian Diaspora cannot be above the interests of the European Union.

Recently, the fake "Committee for the Protection of the Fundamental Rights of the People of Karabakh", created by the separatists entrenched in Armenia, reported on the work done in two years. In this report, full of all sorts of nonsense. The section "International legal confirmation" attracted our attention. Here, the separatists gathered information about gross interference in the internal affairs of Azerbaijan, which took place in the parliaments and other structures of individual EU countries and the European Union itself. The separatists are very proud of this support and are building their opposition to the geopolitical realities based on the promises made to them by the Europeans.

A lot has happened since Azerbaijan fully restored its sovereignty over all internationally recognized Azerbaijani territories. In November 2023, the International Court of Justice granted the Armenian claim and ordered Azerbaijan to "ensure the conditions for the safe return of Armenians", having done a great service to the separatists, who, after such support, spread their feathers and began to muddy the waters again. The European Parliament made a particularly significant contribution to these processes by adopting hysterical resolutions of the relevant content in March and October 2024 and March 2025. Resolutions demanding the "return of the Armenians" were adopted in the parliaments of France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. And the Swiss parliamentarians unanimously voted for resolution No. 24.4259, which provides for the holding of a so-called "Peace Forum" in this country on the "safe return of Armenians under international control." To the credit of the Swiss government, the pro-Armenian initiative was rejected. The Armenians hoped that they would be able to gather without Azerbaijan, as they had previously gathered at the "Peace Forum on Ukraine" without the participation of Russia. But it didn't work out. This was the case when the Armenians finally heard the phrase "this is different."

The separatists forgot to mention PACE, which turned into a platform for anti-Azerbaijani games after the pressure of the lobby paid by the Diaspora imposed impossible conditions on our country and it left the Assembly.

To complete the picture, pro-Armenian documents with an anti-Azerbaijani sound appeared in the US Congress and in the Canadian parliament. At the same time, we note that there are no countries in Asia, the East, or even Russia in the separatist report, although the revanchists constantly demonstrate that they have "everything under control" in Moscow. This cannot but raise questions for the West and the European Union in particular. And there are especially many questions about the latter, precisely because Azerbaijan and the EU are long-standing and good partners, the parties maintain close economic ties, and Europe is interested in continuing to do so. At the same time, the toxic steps continue. And not only at the level of the meaningless European Parliament or PACE. The priorities announced at the last meeting of the Armenia-EU Partnership Council were approved at the highest level.

At the same time, the European Union continues to declare its support for the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This was once again stated by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaya Kallas, at a meeting of the 32nd annual OSCE Ministerial Conference in Vienna on December 4.

"We welcome the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan for their initiative to sign a bilateral peace treaty in August this year. The EU will continue to support this process by all means available to it," she said.

Wonderful words, but how does Brussels see support for the peace process, while promising Armenia to support its lawsuits against Baku and seek the release of Armenian war criminals? I would like to remind you that Europe needs Azerbaijan not only as a reliable supplier of oil and gas. Today, its importance for the EU has increased significantly, because the Europeans are targeting the critical raw materials of Central Asia, and also want to supply green electricity from there. All this will reach Europe only through Azerbaijan. Even with the end of the war in Ukraine, Russian transit will not become a priority for the EU as before. The most reliable, safe and stable logistics routes are those where Azerbaijan plays a key role. It is simply impossible to circumvent it, which makes it more difficult for unhealthy forces to work against our country. 

The priorities of the partnership between Armenia and the EU as a whole look like a custody document in which the guardian lists what he undertakes to do for the person being taken into custody. It would be more correct to talk about the priorities of guardianship rather than partnership, because partnership is a process that develops between two parties capable of offering something to each other. Armenia probably also has something to offer the European Union, besides subordination, but it seems that the EU does not need anything more from this country. The EU is intercepting Armenia from Russia, preparing to conclude a corresponding document that will indicate how well it will be and how all its aspirations will begin to be realized. For God's sake, let it be so, if the realization of aspirations does not affect the interests of Armenia's neighbors.

That's the problem, not envy and jealousy. None of the Eastern Partnership countries is capable of concluding an agreement with the EU that will be concluded sooner or later with Azerbaijan. Of the EAP countries, it is the only one capable of being an equal partner of Europe, and not a supplicant. Baku absolutely does not need the European Union to choose between it and Yerevan. Azerbaijan does not need guardianship or help, it only needs an honest partnership that will not be marred by attempts to interfere in its internal affairs. These processes cannot develop in parallel. This is not a whim, but fair expectations, which, hopefully, will be fulfilled until the final document between Brussels and Yerevan is signed.