Peter Semneby: "A more active interest of the EU in resolving the conflicts"

The last report of the International Crisis Group called on the European Union (EU) to play a more visible and effective role in the South Caucasus, particularly as regards the security issue. The situation is obviously not so simple, but is there not a lot of truth in the fact that the EU has so far been notable by its absence when it comes to the frozen conflicts in the South Caucasus?

I think that the report of the ICG is a very good one. In fact, I was there at the report presentation. I welcomed it because it gives important, useful ideas for my work at the start of my term. I agree that the EU has so far not played a very substantive role in the resolution of the conflicts. This is for many reasons -- some of them are historical. A decade and a half ago, when the Soviet Union fell apart, and the conflict emerged, the EU did not have the instruments to engage in the conflict resolution. It was only with the launch of the instruments of the EU special representative, of the launch of the European security and defence policy that the EU got the possibility to engage according to its relative weight in affairs like this. My predecessor was appointed two and a half years ago, creating groundwork for this, and I intend to take this work forward.

Based on his work, the EU can make a difference on conflict resolution issues. We do have different formats of conflicts resolutions in all the three frozen conflicts. Some of them are functioning -- in the sense that they're for the dialogue between the parties --, others are not really very useful for the conflict resolution, but rather instruments for keeping the conflict frozen, particularly the Joint Control Commission in South Ossetia. So I intend to support the conflict resolution mechanisms that are functioning for dialogue, and I intend to see what we can do to complement them.

So you mean that there is no reorientation of the EU policy toward South Caucasus?

There is a more active interest in resolving the conflicts. The EU has now, unlike few years ago, the military means to support settlements, and also financial means from the European Commission to support the rehabilitation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The European Commission has awarded a substantial budget for the rehabilitation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. How will this translate on the round?

Well, we have to see in two years what has happened. But what I can say at his stage is that the South Caucasus, and I would say the whole Black Sea Area, is becoming more important for the EU. And that in itself is the basis for a stronger engagement of the EU in this area. There are several reasons for that: the EU is expanding, and moving closer to this area. Bulgaria and Romania, two States on the Black Sea, are becoming members of the EU, which is going to create totally new prospective; Turkey, which has common borders with South Caucasus countries, is negotiating for membership with the EU, and will also change the prospective; questions regarding energy security, energy supply are becoming more important and this is the reason of a growing interest in energy access.

So this is how you explain the greater interest of the EU towards the South Caucasus?

I would also add this growing engagement as a result of the fact that those countries are also becoming more familiar to the EU public. It's taking quite some time because those countries are distant, but there is a growing knowledge in Europe about the South Caucasian culture, people, countries, and so on. There is an obvious engagement for example after the democratic changes in Georgia. That is creating a new link between Europe and those countries. This has also been strengthened after the enlargement of the EU. The new members have much closer historical links with the Caucasus, especially the Baltic countries.

Shouldn't the EU concentrate on a clear strategy?

Absolutely. You also have to understand that after only three weeks on my job, I don't have a full strategy. But it's a crucially important issue. The South Caucasus is moving closer to the EU, all of the three countries are part of the European Neighbourhood Policy, even if Georgia is closer. They're partners of the EU. The EU has a stake in making sure that the development of those societies continues. In order to consolidate the democratic changes, in order to create the conditions for economic development and prospective prosperity, the frozen conflicts need to be resolved.

How would you react to the Statement of Baramidze: "At this stage, we're not ready for EU membership, and EU is not ready to take Georgia?"

It's clear that there's no membership prospective in the European Neighbourhood Policy. On the part of the EU, there is an offer of very strong relationships, but it's no sort of membership.

To come back to the main issue of conflicts, particularly that of Nagorno Karabakh, which opposes Armenia and Azerbaijan, on a recent trip to the South Caucasus you said that you were optimistic that a solution could be found…

I'm cautiously optimistic. The meeting at Rambouillet was a setback. It did not mean a final end for the efforts to find a resolution. Those efforts are continuing, the Minsk Group members are still working on this issue, but after Rambouillet, the efforts have lost momentum and it will take some time again until this kind of pressure we have before Rambouillet will be topped again in order to engage the parties in a negotiation that would lead to an actual settlement.

Unfortunately the longer time passes, the more obstacles seem to appear on the road. We're going to face elections, and one issue that worries me, that I was also mentioning in Azerbaijan during my visit, is the growing talk in Azerbaijan about a military solution to the problem. And there's a message that the EU is sending throughout, also to Georgia, that any attempt at a military solution to the conflicts will have very deep consequences. It's not a way of blackmailing, but just a statement of fact. It will erode the confidence of the EU member states in the stability of the region.

by Celia Chauffour

/www.caucaz.com/