They can't cope without Turkiye: The European Union is facing a new reality

The other day, at a meeting of the Turkish government, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: "We want our European friends to understand the role of the new Turkiye in a changed world and define their strategies accordingly." The Turkish leader noted that the global system based on rules and laws has entered a phase of collapse, mainly due to the fault of its founders themselves. According to Erdogan, the European Union is currently trying to cope with one of the most serious challenges to its security, and in such a situation, Europeans should understand that "Turkiye is the last exit before the bridge." The European Union must realize Turkiye's role in a changed world and determine its strategy accordingly, Erdogan said.

Do European countries agree to reconsider their attitude towards Turkiye? No statements on this matter are being made by the EU. However, the fact that Turkiye was invited to a meeting on Ukraine organized in London by the British side suggests that the role of this country in Europe is recognized, although they try not to talk about it out loud.

Turkiye was represented at the meeting by Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan. After the meeting, the press service of the Turkish Foreign Ministry disseminated his words that meetings of European leaders on Ukraine and European security issues would be held more often. The leaders of the states have authorized their technical groups to seek solutions to the problem. "We will all see together whether there will be a peace agreement on Ukraine, whether Europe will have a new security architecture in this context," Fidan said.

As you know, amid the negotiations initiated by Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine, concern about the European security system is growing in Europe. The new White House administration has expressed dissatisfaction with the fact that American taxpayers are being spent on European security, while the EU countries themselves are not making much effort to do so.  Earlier, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the United States is not going to continue to sponsor NATO partners who do not spend enough money on their own defense. "The only thing that puts NATO at risk is the fact that we have allies who barely have armed forces or whose military is not very effective because they have spent 40 years without spending any money on it," he said.

Not only such economically disadvantaged and dependent countries as the former Soviet Baltic States, but also the rich states of Finland, Sweden and others do not make much effort. The latter two have recently come under the NATO umbrella, counting on guarantees of their security from the United States in the event of a hypothetical Russian threat. It is possible that if Trump were in power, he would block this process. It should be recalled that the accession of Finland and Sweden was blocked for a long time by Turkiye, which subsequently agreed in exchange for Sweden's promise to promote Ankara's rapprochement with the European Union.

The head of the White House believes that most European countries do not allocate sufficient funds for the maintenance of a combat-ready army. And now, terrified by his statements, the EU countries are rushing to come to their senses and hastily create their own European security system. On March 6, an EU summit was held in Brussels, at which the European Commission's ReArm EU rearmament plan was adopted. However, there is a question of its credit financing in the amount of 800 billion. The euro for the period up to 2029 has been postponed. The unanimously approved plan provides for the formation of an 800 billion package. The euro is intended to strengthen the defense, improve the armed forces and develop the military industry of the EU countries. The largest army in Europe will be the German Armed Forces. Today, the German army has 180,000 personnel, while the French army has 200,000 troops.

It is difficult to say how much this plan will help solve the problem. The main issue is that the financing has not yet been settled. Besides, the development of the armed forces is not a matter of three or four years. And most importantly, the army becomes the guarantor of security not by the number of personnel, but by its combat capability. This quality has been created over the years, but it is tested in real combat. France, which currently has the largest army in Europe, has not yet been able to demonstrate its combat capability, although this country has repeatedly been highlighted in attempts to use military force in different parts of the world.

As Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said after the summit, his country has nothing to fear when its allies are countries such as the United States and Turkiye.

And the Hungarian Prime Minister is absolutely right, because the Turkish army is the only combat-ready army in Europe. Turks are historically inclined to martial arts, many traditions of modern armies were adopted from the Ottomans, including military marches. The Turks know how to fight, which they have proven more than once. This country understands the importance of the army, and even in difficult times, defense and security issues have never been overlooked.

In 2024, Turkiye rose in the ranking of the world's strongest armies according to Global Fire Power, leaving France and Germany behind. The second NATO army, numbering about 400,000 personnel, rose from 11th to 8th place.

Turkiye's military-industrial complex is ready to contribute to strengthening the EU's defense industry and European security, President Erdogan said during a videoconference organized by the head of the European Council with EU partner countries.

"We believe that it would be in our common interests to plan all steps to ensure European security together with Turkiye. In all these efforts, it is undoubtedly important to preserve transatlantic ties to the maximum extent possible and to receive the strong support of our ally, America. Our defense industry, with its advanced technologies, is ready to contribute to the strengthening of Europe's defense sector," the Turkish leader said. Erdogan believes that the programs of the European defense industry within the EU should be open to all European allies.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also believes that Turkiye can become a protective barrier to Europe, and called on the EU leadership to cooperate with Ankara in the field of defense industry. The fact that Turkiye has been invited to discussions on EU security, and EU representatives have visited Ankara more often, shows that the European Union is also aware of this. But will this help Turkey move towards European integration?

Ankara does not hide that it is ready to become a security umbrella for Europe, not for beautiful eyes, but in exchange for intensifying the process of its membership in the European Union. As Erdogan said, Turkiye expects its European partners "to realize this reality and approach the process of its full EU membership with a far-sighted perspective."

Meanwhile, Turkiye already has competitors. According to Ukrainian experts, Ukraine can claim to be a guarantor of European security to a greater extent. No matter how strong the Turkish army is, it "will not play a major role in the defense of Europe, in particular in the formation of a new military alliance - Ukraine will take this place," experts say, believing that all the resources and training of the Turkish army "are not enough to independently wage war against the aggressor."

Meanwhile, President Volodimir Zelensky said that Ukraine sees Turkiye among its security guarantors. He said this at a press conference after a February meeting with President Erdogan in Ankara, where he went amid talks between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Riyadh. "I do not know at what point, in what format, in what role, but Erdogan knows that we see him among the important guarantors of security for us. I talked about this with Erdogan. I think Europe needs to look at Turkiye. Because there are two armies in Europe - the Ukrainian and the Turkish. These are the two largest armies," Zelensky said.

Time will tell how events will develop on the continent. It all depends on whether Trump stops scaring the Europeans. It is possible that after reaching an agreement with Moscow and Kiev on a ceasefire, the topic of European security will again be shelved. The fact is that the American view of the world for Ukraine lies through the transfer of rare earth resources of this country to the United States. If Kiev agrees, the United States will not remove its security umbrella, but, on the contrary, will increase it even more, since they themselves will need it to protect their assets. The assets and interests of the United States in Ukraine will be a barrier to a hypothetical Russian threat to Europe, and Brussels will try to distance itself from Ankara again.

International politics, it's like that.