Europe is no longer in the game - it has been shown the door

At the closing of the Munich Security Conference, its chairman Christoph Heusgen could not hold back tears, commenting on the speech of US Vice President Jay Dee Vance, sustained in the style of rhetoric of the current American administration. Because Vance's speech showed that there are serious cracks in the integrity of the Euro-Atlantic concept, which is not very good news for Europe.

International politics is a very fickle lady. She has a lot of moods, and her mood changes completely unexpectedly and unpredictably. Many analysts today admit that a couple of months ago it would never have occurred to them that the geopolitical situation would begin to change in a completely different direction from what was expected. Since the beginning of this week, everything has changed, the vectors of development of global geopolitics have changed direction, causing shock in some, a sense of triumph in others, and homeric laughter in others.

Even before the US elections, future President Donald Trump announced plans to immediately put an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war. These words were understood by many too literally, that is, as pressure on Moscow for a fair settlement of the problem and broader assistance to Kiev. All the sanctions against Moscow and all attempts to cut off its economic arteries failed, and Europe expected Trump to bang his fist on the table. However, it turned out that this was not what Trump meant at all. The current head of the White House is a successful businessman, he has other methods of solving problems, and he even calls ending the war in Ukraine a deal, not an agreement, not a peace treaty, but a deal. Something in exchange for something. And the exchange, apparently, will take place not between Moscow and Kiev, but between Moscow and Washington.

The negotiations between the delegations of Russia and the United States that took place in Riyadh have put all the dots on the "I". The fact that negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian war took place without Ukraine caused nervousness not only in Kiev. On the same day, representatives of the European political beau monde also gathered for the same reason - to discuss ending the war, wanting to create some kind of balance and show that not only Trump and Putin are in business, but also Brussels. But if you look at the photos from both meetings, it won't be difficult to determine which one made real sense.

Three years ago, Europe had a chance to stop the escalation of the conflict, but it chose the wrong path, overestimating its own strength and underestimating the capabilities of the other side. The attempt to take advantage of the tragedy of the Ukrainian people to solve their own problems ended in complete failure today. And the event in Paris, which does not give the impression of serious discussions, is proof of this.

French President Macron insists that this meeting is not a response to the negotiations in the UAE. Nothing like that. It just so happened. We sat, talked, and laughed. The latter was particularly surprising to outside observers - cheerful smiles on their faces, as if they were going to a birthday party and someone was about to put out the candle on the cake. Very serious issues were discussed with such a frivolous attitude. It was stated that the leaders of eight European countries are ready to provide security guarantees to Ukraine in the future, but... As always, there is a "but" - but depending on the support from the United States.  The meeting at the Elysee Palace was initiated by Macron. This politician has long and repeatedly tried to take the Ukrainian issue into his own hands, to become a leader of the process and become the voice of Europe. No one objected much, but few people took the French president's ideas seriously. Probably, little has changed in this approach, because the meeting did not produce results. No concrete steps have been worked out. According to European media, the meeting raised more new questions than it answered about what Europe would do next. The leaders of France, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain, Great Britain, Poland and Italy, as well as representatives of the EU and NATO who participated in the meeting, said that no deal on Ukraine should be concluded behind their backs. They confirmed their readiness to continue supporting Kiev, but could not come to any decision on what, in fact, Europe can offer as security guarantees. The lack of consensus shows the weakness of Europe's position in its attempts to oppose Trump on the Ukrainian track. The latter had already begun negotiations with Russia, and there seemed to be complete mutual understanding at the table in Riyadh.

According to media reports, Russia and the United States have proposed a three-stage plan for a peaceful settlement of the conflict. These are the cease-fire, the holding of elections in Ukraine and the subsequent final signing of a peace agreement. Let us remind you once again that all this was resolved without the presence of the Ukrainian side. According to some reports, she was denied participation. The Republican administration took too close care of Kiev in its confrontation with Moscow, and Trump is now demanding the election of a new president, with whom he will talk.

Europe was also ignored. In principle, the European Union can be dispensed with in such a process, since Europe has already received more than one red card when trying to play the role of a negotiator and mentor. She had failed everything. But blatant disregard of the Ukrainian side itself is nonsense. And it is unlikely that this will lead to real results on earth. Zelensky reasonably stated that "Ukraine is an independent state and has the right to decide its own fate on its own." That's right, but Kiev's decisions have been influenced by other parties for almost all the years of independence, which has led Ukraine to the present day, to occupation, irreversible losses, devastation and even greater dependence on external players. Today's situation is really very difficult. Europe is about to throw out the white flag in front of Trump, and the United States is restoring relations with Russia and is already making joint plans. The initiatives of Macron, who is not interesting or important to anyone, are more an act of complacency than a real calculation. Apparently, Zelensky himself is no longer counting on Europe. Analysts tend to believe that his current hopes are more related to Ankara.

At a recent press conference, Donald Trump made it clear that he would not mind if EU military forces were deployed in Ukraine after peace was established. There will be no American contingent among them, but if the Europeans make such a decision, fine, he doesn't mind. However, it is doubtful that the Europeans will be able to make a decision. Macron put forward the idea repeatedly, and then backed off himself. None of the neighbors wanted to join this ill-conceived initiative, and there was no reason for France to be in the heat alone. At a meeting at the Elysee Palace on Tuesday, this issue was raised again in the context of Ukraine's security guarantees. Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain categorically refused to send troops to Ukraine, despite pressure from Paris. The United Kingdom and France are in favor of deploying European peacekeepers. Meanwhile, the author of the idea, Macron, said in an interview with reporters that "France does not intend to send its troops to Ukraine." How to understand all this?

A curious point was voiced after the meeting in the UAE by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He said that the European Union should be involved in the negotiations, since it was he who imposed sanctions against Russia. It seems that the EU will be involved in the case as a defendant, rather than a participant in the negotiations, or rather, a deal. As Rubio said, "Europe will eventually be called to the negotiating table to discuss sanctions relief for the Kremlin." In other words, she will not participate in resolving the conflict, and the EU will be required to lift sanctions. Earlier, Trump had already called the sanctions against Russia a mistake, although he suggested that they would remain in place until peace came. And we can agree with that. Sanctions are not a method of solving problems at all, they only aggravate the situation, especially when they are imposed on a country capable of dealing with them.

Anyway, the war in Ukraine needs to end. The further you go, the more damage and losses there will be. Perhaps what is happening now is a painful way out, but still. The so-called allies have driven Ukraine into a dead end, and they are not able to help get out of it.

In general, regarding Ukraine, all its defenders did not act pragmatically, hoping for some short-term result. There have been many mistakes that cannot be fixed.