Project without demand: why the Crossroads of the World is not interested in Europe

In Armenia, they are wondering why Nikol Pashinyan went to Davos. The assumptions about the negotiations on a peace treaty did not materialize. Then for what? The answer is obvious - in order to once again try to interest Europe in something. Pashinyan has already begun to guess that Europe itself will not go to Armenia with its projects. Therefore, I took my "Crossroads of the World" and went to Switzerland, barely making it to the end of the event.

During the panel discussion, Pashinyan delighted the audience by announcing that he had found a means "to overcome shocks in the supply chain." This is the "Crossroads of the World".

"We are talking about improving the efficiency of our regional transport links, creating new transport links not only with Azerbaijan, but also with Turkiye, as well as deepening our cooperation with Iran and Georgia. This is also about the EU, because if this program becomes a reality, we will have new chain routes for the European Union - through Armenia. It's not just a matter of economics. This is also a very important safety factor... But, of course, this project will work only if we can establish a stable peace with Azerbaijan, which, unfortunately, is not the case now," Pashinyan said.

Yerevan is trying hard to convince Europe of the importance and indispensability of Armenia's transit role. It is as if there is no well-established and efficient transit from Asia to Europe, which just solves the issue of "supply chain shocks." It is as if the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and the Middle Corridor are not in sight. It's as if all the hopes of West and East, North and South intersect only in Armenia. Why should Europe, Iran, Georgia, or anyone else care about a hypothetical "Crossroads of the World" when logistics issues in the region have long been resolved? According to the tone of Pashinyan's speech, it is felt that he is not so much advertising his useless project as trying to convince Europe of the need to put pressure on Azerbaijan in order to catch Baku opening the border and allow Turkiye to do the same. He offers Europeans a product that they cannot produce on their own. The notorious crossroads is associated with a lot of "ifs", they are visible to everyone, and Pashinyan also has to voice them.

To become the crossroads that Azerbaijan is today, Armenia needs to develop infrastructure in all directions. In the East-West direction, it completely depends on the will and decisions of Azerbaijan. The North-South corridor has some opportunities for development, although even here everything is not so simple. Armenia's indispensability in it is also dust in the eyes of its partners. But in this case, Yerevan at least has room for maneuver in the form of open borders with Georgia and Iran.

They have been talking about building their own North-South section in Armenia for twenty years. Yerevan once tried to build a railway, but in this idea he was left alone with his helplessness. Even Russia, whose outpost was Armenia, did not join the project, pointing out to the Armenian side that it was pointless and deadlocked. The difficult terrain of the country makes the construction of railways very costly and difficult. External stakeholders would do this only if Armenia had some strategic importance and was irreplaceable. And that's not the case.

It is interesting to observe how Yerevan is trying to isolate Russia from the MTK North-South project, or rather, it is trying to pretend to its creditors that it is not there. To this end, emphasis is being placed on the importance of the corridor for the transit of Iranian goods to the Black Sea. Armenia is currently considering the construction of the Armenian section of the MTK only from the point of view of the development of a hypothetical Persian Gulf-Black Sea corridor. Armenia relies heavily on its Indian allies to choose this route for transporting goods to Europe. Since Nikol Pashinyan saw the map of the region, he not only learned the correct names of the regions of Azerbaijan, but also saw the opportunity to integrate into the North-South, leaving Russia aside. Armenia was not allowed to enter the West-East corridor. The former White House administration, I remember, tried to squeeze her into the Middle Corridor, but nothing came of it. Once, Azerbaijan was expected to connect Armenia to the BTC oil pipeline route, then the West refused to invest in the BTK railway if it bypassed Armenia, now someone needed to introduce this country into the Middle Corridor. It is needed as a kind of chip that allows you to control processes.

At the end of last year, Pashinyan announced that Armenia had sent Azerbaijan a proposal to resume railway communication between the two countries. At the same time, Armenia is discussing the possibility of resuming railway communication with Turkiye. If the railway line between the three countries is restored, it will become an alternative branch of the Trans-Caspian route, which is shorter than the route through Georgia, Pashinyan announced.

"According to our assessment, we have found a solution on how to resume railway communication, which would be completely acceptable for both Armenia and Azerbaijan. We have sent the proposal of this decision in writing to Azerbaijan and are waiting for its positive reaction. When this reaction is received, it will be necessary to quickly sign the contract and start building the railway," Nikol Pashinyan said, sharing his dream of building the Baku-Gyumri-Kars railway, which will plug the BTK belt.

Everything is clear, except why he decided that Azerbaijan would help Armenia create an alternative to the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route and the BTK. In addition, it is clear that the geography of the Armenian prime minister is still bad. If Armenia behaves well, signs the peace and builds the Zangezur corridor, the branch line through Armenian territory will become part of the TMTM, but in no way a competitor to it.

Nikol Pashinyan repeats over and over again that he has found an incredible solution acceptable to both sides. It is clear why all this is acceptable to Armenia. And who said that Yerevan's ideas are acceptable to us? Azerbaijan will never abandon safe and orderly transit through Georgia in favor of a route through Armenia, where Azerbaijani vehicles, cargo and passengers will always be in danger. The only route where it is more or less possible to ensure safety is the road through Zangezur. Because the route is short. Pashinyan talks about security, but he has little idea what it means to guarantee the safety of hundreds of kilometers of railway tracks when your society lives and breathes hatred.

Earlier, while advertising his "Crossroads of the World," Pashinyan avoided mentioning the road through Zangezur, focusing on other options for how Azerbaijan could get to Nakhchivan. I remember that at a conference in Tbilisi on the Silk Road, Pashinyan showed on the map the points that he offers Azerbaijan instead of the Zangezur corridor. The Armenian side presented three points on the border for checkpoints, from where it will be possible to transit to the NAR. But the fact is that from a geographical point of view, these are the most difficult and difficult route options, unsuitable for large-scale international transit. The routes proposed by Pashinyan pass through mountainous terrain, where in places the height of the passes reaches 3,000 meters above sea level.

The cross-border roads remaining from Soviet times and blocked since the beginning of the conflict have either been destroyed or require reconstruction. They are definitely not suitable as part of an international logistics route, as they must be completely modernized for this. Even Azerbaijan, with its modern transport and logistics infrastructure, has to modernize due to the new geopolitical situation, which has led to a sharp increase in cargo transportation. Armenia will have to start everything from scratch.

Armenia's interest is seen exclusively in Pashinyan's proposals. Armenia can make any calculations, it is its right, but it should not speak for Azerbaijan. The Crossroads of the World is of absolutely no interest to our country. Let's say more - it is of no interest to Europe either. They understand that the Europeans will have to pay for everything. And why do this when there are already routes to the East and South through Azerbaijan and Turkiye? Transit through Armenia may be shorter, but it involves so many difficulties that it makes no sense. 

There are big problems with logistics in Armenia. Take, for example, the situation around the new Tatev-Avgani highway, built as an alternative to the Gerus-Gafan road built in Soviet times. A small section of the latter passes through the territory of the Gubadli region and returned to Azerbaijan after the war. After all the tantrums, to which the Iranian side also joined, the Armenians built a new road, not wanting to pass through the Azerbaijani border checkpoint. A year later, the alternative road collapsed. It was claimed that it was due to a landslide, but the road was no good even before the collapse. Trucks from Iran had to drive along it, which also did not want to negotiate kindly with Azerbaijan. Trucks got stuck on the new "alternative" highway, deteriorated, and its long-awaited collapse solved this problem.

It may seem to some that we are gloating, but this is not the case. We're just stating the facts and we want to give our neighbors the feeling that they're doing something wrong again.