Pashinyan's cunning plan: what is behind positive signals from Yerevan?

By Emin Aliyev, Editor-in-Chief, Trend NA

The statements made a few days ago by Nikol Pashinyan literally blew up the Armenian society. Let me remind you that the Armenian Prime Minister publicly and officially stated that Yerevan is counting on mutual recognition of territorial integrity with Azerbaijan within the borders of 1991 - that is, according to the administrative division of the USSR for that period.

Of course, this implies the recognition by Armenia of the territory of the former NKAR as an integral part of our country - and Pashinyan did not deny this fact.

The words of the Armenian prime minister caused a big stir in Armenia. The opposition began to accuse Pashinyan of betraying "national interests", about the same, only generously diluted with obscene epithets, was broadcast on social networks.

Meanwhile, in Pashinyan's words, one deliberate reservation was made - or rather, not made - which makes it clear that what he said is not a statement of historical truth and new regional realities, but part of the game that he is going to play. Pashinyan is ready to officially recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and sign any document where this is spelled out - but with the condition of fixing the area of ??Armenia. Pashinyan dozens of times, like a mantra, repeated the area of ??Armenia - 29.8 thousand square kilometers, and here there was also a hint of the game he had started.

Having fixed the territorial integrity of Armenia in that very square, Pashinyan hopes to "close" the Zangazur corridor project. That is why he speaks so actively about the readiness to mutually recognize territorial integrity.

The Armenian prime minister hopes that in this way he will finally be able to "win" the debate around the Zangazur corridor. The calculation is simple: if Baku signs an agreement in which it recognizes the territorial integrity of Armenia in the area of those same 29.8 thousand square kilometers, then Armenia will disrupt any negotiations on the Zangazur corridor, referring to this very peace agreement! Like, here, Azerbaijan recognized our territory as ours - and the section along which the Zangazur corridor passes, too. So, "talks about his special status are meaningless."

Of course, the naive Armenian prime minister believes that Yerevan will refer to the Trilateral Statement to the objections from Baku about the Lachin road, and maybe Russia will help in some way (hope for the elders is a hallmark of the toothless Armenian foreign policy).

Pashinyan probably thinks his plan is, if not ingenious, then very outstanding. And everything would be fine, if not for one "but": Armenia will not be able to oppose anything to Azerbaijan in response to the installation of a checkpoint at the entrance to the Lachin road.

Moreover, Azerbaijan will be able to beat Pashinyan with his own cards. Vovaevich, did you sign the recognition of the territory of Armenia on an area of 29.8 thousand square kilometers? Well done! And under the area of ??Azerbaijan in 86.6 thousand is also your signature? OK it's all over Now.

Recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan within the borders of 1991 will bury the Armenian tactics, calculated on some kind of exclusive status of the Lachin road without linking it to the Zangazur corridor. A peace treaty between the two countries will make all trilateral statements irrelevant - it will no longer be possible to refer to them.

And if Pashinyan is really ready to recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, then he will inevitably have to sign under the recognition of the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan over the Lachin road without indicating its special status.

And this means that when Baku installs a checkpoint at the entrance to this road, then all the objections of Yerevan will be crossed out by Pashinyan himself. And yesterday's provocation in Azerbaijan's Shusha, when our soldiers were blown up on a mine laid by Armenians, makes the installation of such a checkpoint a matter of time.