Gareth Winrow: Major Caspian gas discovery could bolster Azerbaijan’s position as an important exporter of gas to Europe

Washington DC based Sidar Global Advisors (SGA) researchers believe that major Caspian gas discovery by Total last week could bolster Azerbaijan’s position as an important exporter of gas to Europe.

In his exclusive analysis, Dr. Gareth Winrow, Director of Research Services of the think-tank, mentioned that the discovery of substantial gas volumes at the offshore Absheron block boosts prospects for Southern Gas Corridor.

“Total’s presence in Azerbaijan could be further consolidated and the experience acquired at Absheron may help the company in offshore gas exploration elsewhere. More gas could be delivered along the Southern Gas Corridor as energy majors may now reactivate their interest in developing offshore structures in the Turkmen part of the Caspian”, he says.

The company reminds that the block could hold approximately 350 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas and 45 million metric tons of gas condensate. This finding could considerably enhance Total’s profile in Azerbaijan, strengthen Azerbaijan’s stature as a leading gas exporter, and boost the prospects for the realization of the Southern Gas Corridor along which significant volumes of Caspian gas would be transported westward to markets in Europe.

Before the find at Absheron, Azerbaijani energy officials were talking of exporting 25-30 bcm of gas each year by 2020-2025. The prospects for the realization of the Nabucco pipeline and for smaller gas pipeline projects will have been enhanced by the Absheron discovery. A further boost was given when on September 12 EU leaders awarded the European Commission a mandate to negotiate with Azerbaijani and Turkmen officials to obtain backing for the construction of a trans-Caspian gas pipeline. “This would enable Turkmen gas to be delivered to Europe along the Southern Gas Corridor”.

“In our opinion, these latest developments could rekindle the interest of energy majors in securing contracts with the authorities in Ashgabat to develop offshore gas fields in the Turkmen part of the Caspian Sea”, says SGA researchers adding, companies such as Chevron have been more eager to secure access to larger onshore fields in Turkmenistan but the regime in Ashgabat has been pushing energy majors to work offshore instead.

“A number of companies, including Chevron, ConocoPhillips and Exxonmobil may now be encouraged to work offshore provided that they can secure approval from the Turkmen government. For example, ConocoPhillips has been hoping to link up its exploration work in the Kazakh sector of the Caspian Sea with nearby offshore Turkmen blocks”.

“We think that the prospects for the further development of the Caspian Sea do look more promising. The gas discovery at Absheron may lead to acceleration in talks between Azerbaijani and Turkish officials to secure a transit agreement for the transportation of Azerbaijani gas to Europe”, the authors say.

However, according to SGA expectations, there may yet be delays and problems with regard to Absheron.


/APA/