OPEC increases Azerbaijani oil production forecasts

Based on OPEC's monthly oil market report, the cartel raised its forecasts after Azerbaijani oil production data peaked in the first and early second quarter. Projected oil production growth will mainly be observed due to the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli bloc of fields, where production is expected to reach 0.85 million bpd in 2010.

The highest Azerbaijani oil production volume in 2011 will be seen in the fourth quarter at 1.16 million bpd. In the second quarter, the figure will amount to 1.06 million bpd and in the third quarter the figure will reach 1.1 million bpd.

The cartel expects oil production in 2010 in other Caspian countries - specifically Kazakhstan and Russia - to reach 1.61 million bpd and 10.02 million bpd, respectively. Oil production growth in Kazakhstan will reach 70,000 bpd and 100,000 bpd in Russia.


Oil supplies by non-OPEC countries

OPEC raised its oil supply forecasts by non-OPEC countries by 0.64 million bpd to 51.78 million bpd. The figure is 0.11 million bpd more than the figure forecast by OPEC last month.

Oil supplies in the former Soviet Union will grow by 0.23 million bpd to 13.15 million bpd in 2010.

Based on the OPEC forests, OECD oil supply will reach 19.57 million bpd in 2010, or 0.07 million bpd lower than the volume in 2009. Oil supplies by the United States in 2010 will grow by 0.16 million bpd to 14.45 million bpd.

Non-OPEC oil production is projected at 49.69 million bpd this year, which is 0.56 million bpd more than last year's production level. According to OPEC, global oil supplies fell by 0.25 million bpd to 85.75 million bpd in May. The oil cartel's share in global supply remained at 34.1 percent last month.


World demand

OPEC forecasts an increase in global oil demand by 0.9 million bpd to 85.37 million bpd in 2010. Global oil demand will peak in the fourth quarter at 86.57 million bpd in 2010.

OECD oil demand in 2010 will reach 45.32 million bpd, or 0.17 million bpd less than in 2009.

"Although there was a slight recovery in oil demand in OECD countries in the first five months of 2010, growth will not be observed this year due to the current economic situation, particularly in the eurozone," the report stated.

Oil demand in the United States will increase by 0.3 million bpd to 23.59 million bpd, the cartel forecast.


Global economy

OPEC predicts global economic growth at 3.8 percent in 2010 compared to the 3.5 percent forecast ealrier. The U.S. economic growth forecast this year remained at 2.8 percent. Economic growth in OECD countries will hit 2.1 percent, in Japan - 2.7 percent, in the eurozone - 0.7 percent, in China - 9.5 percent and in India - 7.3 percent.


/Trend/