Armenian finance ministry foecasts GDP decline of 10-15 percent

“GDP index will be more encouraging, lower than 18% at an annualized pace”.

The minister said different mechanisms, methodologies and approaches are used for predicting GDP index. They each have their peculiarities, and the results obtained certainly differ, although very slightly.

“Clear-cut prognosis present an intricate mechanism depending on many indexes, and economy is such a complicated system that cannot cover all the indexes,” Davtyan said.

With regard to 2010 forecast, the minister said economy is expected to gradually recover in that period.

“We predict economic growth of 1-1.5%, and the budget currently elaborated by the ministry is based on such forecasts,” he said.

Minister does not anticipate inflation rate to exceed the predicted level.

Moreover, there has been seasonal deflation during the past month. “We anticipate a very low inflation rate in the country for the coming year,” Davtyan said.

In January-July 2009, inflation rate in Armenia made up 2.7% in comparison with the same period of last year. Deflation rate in comparison with June made up 2.7%. According to State Budget, inflation in 2009 is on the level of 4% ((±1,5%).

/PanARMENIAN.Net/