Nabucco is non-starter without Azerbaijan: 'The Foreign Policy'

In an analytical article published in the online journal The Foreign Policy, Freifeld considers possible options for gas supplies to Europe. The idea of dependence of this region on Russia which supplies natural gas through Ukraine, does not seem too successful.

Freifeld says for Nabucco to be initially viable, most energy experts agree, the gas will need to come from the former Soviet state of Azerbaijan -- 283 billion cubic feet of gas per year, to be precise, roughly 25 percent of the pipeline's capacity. Indeed, without Azerbaijan and its major natural gas supplies, Nabucco is a non-starter.

Georgia is the key transit state between Azerbaijan and Turkey, hosting two pipelines that bring oil and gas from the Caspian to Turkey. By attacking its small neighbor, Russia effectively warned not only Georgia but the whole neighborhood, the article said.

But in recent months, Nabucco's European supporters have started to get their acts together, and Azerbaijan has begun to take notice of that, too. In May, the EU signed a deal of its own with Azerbaijan, which committed to building energy and trade links directly with Europe. This was arguably a more valuable agreement than the one Azerbaijan later signed with Gazprom, which offered not money but only vague pledges that may or may not be met, Freifeld said in his article.