Armenian economist predicts economic decline of 12-14 percent

“It is difficult to predict what will happen next year. But this indicator is most likely to be in range from minus 2 percent to plus 2 percent,” he said.

Hergnyan said the economy is less likely to recover in the second half of the year. Crisis may deepen in many spheres. Problems may arise with the servicing of loans in some large companies.

According to the Central Bank, in the first half of this year individuals received loan worth $446.7 million of non-commercial nature through Armenia’s banking system, a drop of 33.2 percent compared to the first half of 2008.

Commenting on the outlook of Fitch Rating that the economic downturn will be 15 percent in Armenia at the end of the year, Hergnyan said such a development is the worst-case scenario for the end of the year.
 
“I do not think that there could be a situation much worse than this forecast,” the expert said.
 
Economic decline, according to operational statistics in January-July 2009, amounted to 18.5 percent. However, GDP amounted to 1.417.billion drams ($3.789 million) ($1 equals to 375 drams).

/ARKA/