Ilham Shaban: "It would have been more correct to speak of 30% inflation rate by results of 2008, rather than 22-23%"

He said it is the second year that we see the great inaccuracy in the real assessment of inflation rate in Azerbaijan by the government of Azerbaijan, in this case, in the person of the Ministry of Economic Development.

"In 2007 the Azerbaijani government, predicting the inflation rate at 9%, was obliged to admit in the result that inflation rate topped 16% this year. According to local independent economists, the real inflation rate in Azerbaijan neared 28% in 2007.

Now in September, they tell us that the government failed to curb inflation and it will hit 22-23% this year. So, do we need a government, which is unable to give clear forecasts of the economic situation in the country for the next year? I think, the question is reasonable enough", said he.

According to Shaban, proposals are now considered about raising the expenses of the budget up to $15 bln. Moreover, there are forecasts of raising this figure even to $20 bln, which alongside with the prevailing of internal investments over the external ones will lead to the large-scale inflation.

"Therefore, I think it would have been more correct to speak of 30% inflation rate by results of 2008, rather than 22-23%. But if the government of Azerbaijan decides to raise prices on energy sources, we may expect even 40% inflation.

As for the thesis of Hasanova, who said that the Economic Development Ministry predicts GDP growth rates at 18% in 2009, including over 80% to be produced by the private sector and the share of the oil sector in GDP will near 61%, he said the logics of this announcement is unclear to him.

"Oil production will rise in 2009, which means the increase in its export. It means that it would be impossible to speak of the reduction in the share of oil in GDP. Currently, much have been spoken of the so called "rapid" development of the non-oil sector of Azerbaijan's economy. However, by results of the first seven months of this year, the share of the oil sector in export topped 90%!", said Shaban "I even fear to imagine what will happen by the end of the year and even so more in 2009! In order to get assured of the groundlessness of such talks about the rapid development of the non-oil economic sector of Azerbaijan, it would be enough, to visit the shops of the cities and regions of our country. Import prevails among all goods. Thus, if two years ago, it was possible to see only Borjomi mineral water in these shops, now the local shops are overfilled with several kinds of lemonades from the neighbor country".

According to Shaban, there is no progress in agricultural sector and in other sectors of our economy.

"On this background it seems unreal to say that the share of oil sector in GDP will make 61% next year", concluded Shaban.

/Day.Az/