Inqlab Ahmedov: "If it is revealed that the terrorist act was committed against the BTC pipeline, I am afraid the worst fears will come true which means that everything is still before us"

- Do you think there has been a fire on the BTC pipeline or it was a terrorist act?

- It is still difficult to state anything clearly. Anyway, there is no official information on this issue and the Turkish side is waiting for the fire to burn completely in order to inform of the causes. But regardless of the causes this is the first alarm, which makes all ponder over the vulnerability of the pipeline, supplying light oil to the world market in the amount topping $100 mln every day.

If the failure was caused by technical reasons, all claims should be presented to the Turkish side, if exactly to Botas company, which is responsible both for construction and operation of the Turkish section of the pipeline. But if it is revealed that the terrorist act was committed against the pipeline, I am afraid, the worst fears will come true which means that everything is before us.

The accident should shake up all the parties, involved into the project. It is clear that provision of pipeline security is a complicated task and there is no absolute guarantee for any such infrastructure. Yet, at the same time, a pipeline, bringing billions of revenues to its owners in the geopolitically and geologically vulnerable region, is in need of a more effective regulation.

- As is known, oil transportation by BTC pipeline has been fully suspended and instead oil export started by alternative routes. These include the Baku-Supsa, Baku-Novorossiysk, as well as railway transportations. Who benefits from such developments and such routes of Azerbaijani oil export?

- Currently all alternative routes on supply of Azerbaijani oil to the world market are more expensive than BTC. Only Baku-Supsa is relatively cheap. But this recently repaired pipeline can pump maximum 145,000 barrels of oil per day, while the BTC capacity made 850,000 barrels and was nearing the project pumping capacity that is 1 mln barrels of light oil.

At the same time, it is not the limit capacity of the pipe. The shareholders have an exact program: to raise its capacity to 1.6 mln barrels by means of chemical agents and additional pumping stations. It is not difficult to guess that this will make the pipe more vulnerable and more expensive for its owners.

In the current conditions we will have to use northern route Baku-Novorossiyrk. which was the least profitable, as compared to other routes. Nevertheless, there is such a possibility and I think the Russian side will not hamper it.

But it should be reminded that all alternative routes, including railway transportation have the destination point on the Black Sea which is far from the ocean. This is another negative. They say, the real value of anything is assessed when it is gone. That is the value of a really unique BTC project. But let's hope that everything will be alright soon.

- Which are the financial consequences of the accident at the BTC pipeline for Azerbaijan, for countries, financing the BTC project and for the world market?

- It is obvious that losses are greater for Azerbaijan. As is known Azerbaijan with its 25% share is the second shareholder of BTC following BP. Moreover, Azerbaijan in its main Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field is nearing the most important stage of its share participation with the consortium companies. Our company has been preparing for receipt of 80% profit oil.

Such a delay pushes Azerbaijan back on all parameters. There has been information about oil suspension at ACG, overloading of Sanghachal terminal reservoirs and emptying of reservoirs in the Ceyhan port. If resumption of the pipeline's operation will take several weeks, Azerbaijan's losses may total several tens of millions of dollars by some moderate estimates.

The state of BP operator consortium both in ACG and in BTC is clear to me. It now has to justify itself before partners for cessation of contract provisions. By the way, the explosion on the pipe proved another thing-Azerbaijan's important place on the world energy map. The accident caused price hike on oil on the world market. Today, BTC ensures almost 1% of world market of oil and this figure may grow.

Turkey will also have great financial losses as it was Turkey which undertook to ensure full security of the pipe on its territory. However, the explosion will cause damage to all the parties, even Georgia, which counts on maximum of profits from oil transit via its territory.

/Day.Az/