EIA forecasts gradual decline in Azerbaijan’s oil and liquid hydrocarbons output by 2027

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), operating under the Department of Energy, has released its latest forecast for Azerbaijan’s average daily oil and other liquid hydrocarbon production through 2027, Azernews reports.

According to the EIA’s monthly report, Azerbaijan’s average daily production of oil and other liquid hydrocarbons is expected to stand at 540 thousand barrels in 2027, reflecting a stabilization at a lower level compared to previous years.

The report notes that in 2025, Azerbaijan’s daily production amounted to 570 thousand barrels, fully in line with earlier forecasts. For 2026, the EIA projects production to decline to 540 thousand barrels per day, a forecast that remains unchanged from previous assessments.

Looking back, the EIA estimates that Azerbaijan’s daily oil and other liquid hydrocarbon production in 2024 stood at 600 thousand barrels, indicating a gradual downward trend over the medium term.

According to the EIA’s monthly report:

2027 production is expected to average 540 thousand barrels per day.

In 2026, production is also forecast at 540 thousand barrels per day, unchanged from previous estimates.

In 2025, Azerbaijan produced 570 thousand barrels per day, in line with earlier forecasts.

In 2024, the country’s average daily output was 600 thousand barrels per day.

Adding longer-term context based on EIA historical data:

In 2023, Azerbaijan’s daily oil and other liquid hydrocarbon production was about 620 thousand barrels per day.

In 2022, the figure stood at roughly 670 thousand barrels per day.

The data indicate a steady downward trend in average daily production since 2022, reflecting mature field declines and structural changes in Azerbaijan’s hydrocarbon sector, even as the country balances traditional energy output with diversification efforts.