Central Bank discloses renewed forecasts for inflation in Azerbaijan

By Trend

According to the renewed forecasts, the average annual inflation rate is expected to reach 6.3 - 6.6 percent while the annual inflation rate is between 11.4-11.9 percent in Azerbaijan this year, Trend reports with reference to the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA).

“According to the baseline forecast, the inflation rate will stabilize from the first quarter of next year while from the second half of the year inflation rate will surpass the upper limit of the target range,” the message said.

“According to the official statistics, monthly inflation rate in November was 1.5 percent while for 12 months - 11.1 percent,” the CBA said. “Average annual inflation rate was 6.2 percent while average annual core inflation rate was 3.9 percent from January through November 2021. Inflation rate continues to grow in all subgroups of goods and services.”

Moreover, the CBA stressed that the consumer price index for food products increased by 1.9 percent in November compared to the previous month while the annual food inflation rate was 14.9 percent.

According to the message, the average annual food inflation rate reached 7.4 percent from January through November 2021.

“Prices for non-food products in November increased by 0.5 percent compared to the previous month while over the past year - by 7.1 percent,” the CBA said. “Average annual non-food inflation rate reached 4.8 percent from January through November 2021.”

According to the CBA, services increased in price by 1.6 percent in November and 9.1 percent year on year.

“The average annual inflation rate in the service sector reached 5.4 percent from January through November 2021,” the CBA said. “The impact of the factor of price liberalization applied through the state regulation is still being made on the inflation rate in the service sector.”

According to the message, the increase in annual inflation rate is mainly associated with external factors, for example, with the rise in the world commodity prices and problems in the global supply chain.

“According to the World Bank, the prices for energy resources on the world exchanges increased by 2.1 times while for non-energy goods - by 24.7 percent in November 2021 compared to November 2020,” the message said.

“According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the world food prices increased by 1.2 percent in November and 27.3 percent year on year,” the message said.

According to the message, flour products rose in price by 23.2 percent, dairy products - by 19.1 percent, butter - by 51.4 percent, sugar - by 36.4 percent over the past year.

“Bad weather conditions in some countries exporting food also affect the world food prices,” the message said.