Yerevan’s search for new protector risks repeating old patterns

The South Caucasus is undergoing a profound geopolitical transformation. Following the Second Garabaghh War, a new regional reality has emerged in which old political formulas no longer function. One of the central questions remains the future of Armenia - a state that throughout much of its modern history has struggled to build a fully independent strategic course.

Today, Yerevan once again appears to be repeating a familiar historical pattern: the search for an external "elder brother" capable of guaranteeing security, political backing, and international lobbying. This tendency has created a pattern of dependency that continues to shape Yerevan’s political behavior. For centuries, Armenia’s survival was tied to the patronage of larger states - from imperial Russia to the Soviet Union, and later, to post-Soviet Moscow.

Following the collapse of the USSR, Armenia became one of Russia’s firmest allies in the South Caucasus. The Russian military base in Gyumri and Armenia’s membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) served as tangible symbols of this alliance.

However, the war in Ukraine and Russia’s weakened regional position pushed Armenian elites to search for a new geopolitical sponsor. France rapidly moved to fill that vacuum.

Paris has recently intensified its engagement with Armenia. French politicians have adopted increasingly critical rhetoric toward Azerbaijan, championed humanitarian and political initiatives supportive of Yerevan, and facilitated military cooperation. These actions are often framed as support for democracy and stability, but the underlying motives are more complex.

France’s renewed interest in the Caucasus coincides with its strategic retreat from Africa. After successive setbacks in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso - where anti-French sentiment has surged - France is now looking for new geopolitical arenas where it can project influence. The South Caucasus, with its proximity to the EU, its energy corridors, and its unstable political environment, offers just such an opportunity.

During a recent visit to Yerevan, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that he did not consider France’s support for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan ahead of parliamentary elections to be interference in Armenia’s domestic affairs. According to Macron, the position of France and European states is transparent and therefore cannot be interpreted as outside interference.

At the same time, Armenia’s Ministry of Defense signed new military contracts with French companies during Macron’s visit. Under an agreement with Airbus Helicopters, transport helicopters will be supplied to the Armenian armed forces, although the specific models have not yet been disclosed. Another agreement was signed between Armenia’s Ministry of Defense and SOFEMA Group for the procurement of modern military uniforms and equipment.

President Emmanuel Macron’s posture toward Armenia also reflects domestic considerations. Facing a polarized electorate, mass protests over pension reforms, and declining approval ratings, Macron appears eager to assert leadership abroad as a means of offsetting domestic political fragility. Foreign successes - even symbolic ones - can help restore the image of a decisive global actor, especially within the European context.

For many years, Azerbaijan sought to cultivate a pragmatic relationship with France. Paris was viewed not only as a leading European power but also as a potential cultural and economic bridge. Azerbaijani investments in French art and architecture, cooperation with energy companies, and regular diplomatic dialogue all underscored this desire for balance. Yet, from Baku’s perspective, every step toward friendship was met with French retreat - particularly after the Second Karabakh War in 2020, when Azerbaijan regained control over long-occupied territories.

The repeated expressions of concern for Armenia by French political figures have eroded the notion of neutrality once associated with Paris’s role in the OSCE Minsk Group. French statements often emphasize Armenian grievances while ignoring the destruction of Azerbaijani cities and heritage sites during the three decades of occupation - a silence Baku interprets as a case of double standards.

Earlier, President Ilham Aliyev said that today we live in conditions of peace, and we are the authors of this peace.

"Certain foreign leaders who now visit Armenia and portray themselves as false heroes were the very same leaders in power in their own countries in 2020 - they should have come then and stood up for Armenia. There is nothing but empty talk. That is all they do, which is why their support ratings in their own countries remain at 10–15 percent. Now they allegedly claim to have rescued Armenia from our hands. We had no intention of destroying Armenia or depriving it of its independence. Today, Europe’s so-called observers are still supposedly monitoring the Azerbaijan-Armenia border. I said it then as well: if we fired a single shot, they would flee immediately, and not even a trace of them would remain there. Yet they portray themselves as if they are protecting Armenia from us. There is no need to protect Armenia from us. We have achieved what we set out to achieve," said President Ilham Aliyev during a meeting with residents in the city of Zangilan.

Armenia’s current trajectory - shifting dependency from Moscow to Paris - risks repeating historical mistakes. Instead of diversifying partnerships and prioritizing regional integration, Yerevan may once again find itself aligned with a distant power whose interests only partially overlap with its own.

The alternative lies in pragmatic engagement with neighbors under a framework of mutual economic benefit, connectivity, and sovereignty recognition. The new regional order taking shape in the South Caucasus rewards flexibility and realism, not ideological allegiance.

If Armenia continues to rely on external patrons for its survival, it will remain on the periphery of regional processes.

Moreover, Azerbaijan’s geopolitical importance continues to grow. Its alliance with Türkiye, victory in the Karabakh war, and its emergence as a major Eurasian logistics hub have transformed Baku into one of the region’s most influential players. The development of the Middle Corridor has further strengthened Azerbaijan’s strategic role, especially amid instability in the Middle East and sanctions affecting Russian transit routes.

Image: AFP