From Caucasus to Middle East: Tumultuous December on horizon

As the year winds down, the geopolitical landscape remains as dynamic and unpredictable as ever. The past month offered a cascade of significant developments, setting the stage for an eventful December. Here’s a glimpse of what to expect.

Azerbaijan-Armenia Relations: A Pause, Then What?

The recently concluded COP29 Climate Conference, held in Baku, temporarily overshadowed Azerbaijani-Armenian peace negotiations. Yerevan's decision to condition its participation on the release of Armenian prisoners detained in Azerbaijan led to a diplomatic impasse. While Baku dismissed such preconditions, Armenia opted out, breaking a goodwill chain that began almost a year ago. Despite this setback, signs point to renewed activity in peace talks this December. Both sides claim to have agreed on most aspects of a draft agreement, with lingering disputes centered around Armenia's Constitution, mutual legal claims, and foreign interference—especially the controversial EU mission in Armenia. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has hinted at possible constitutional amendments to remove territorial claims against Azerbaijan, yet substantive action remains elusive. Instead, symbolic gestures like the Armenian Constitutional Court's decisions seem designed more for optics than resolution.

Furthermore, Polish President Andrzej Duda’s visit to Armenia, where he provocatively gazed at Azerbaijan’s sovereign territory with binoculars alongside an EU monitoring mission, is unacceptable. This unexpected and disrespectful act from the leader of a friendly country has drawn significant protest from Baku. While we approach the peace agreement process with cautious optimism, it is evident that achieving a resolution will not be straightforward.

Georgia's Tug of War

Georgia, which was on the verge of integration into the European Union, suddenly faced the most tense situation in the South Caucasus. The government’s tightening of control over the country's political affairs and the adoption of a decision on a Foreign Agent in May 2024 caused considerable indignation in the European Union. While Georgia has been the EU’s closest ally to date, it is now the country it wants to squeeze the most.

The West has been trying to lure Georgia into the European Union with promises of a great future and turning it into its outpost in the region. However, it was not easy to turn the country into a complete tool due to millions of grants and huge investments. The most optimal option to throw the country into turmoil after the election results was to incite a civil war - where thousands are taken to the streets in Tbilisi for an uncertain democratic future.

A group of civil society organizations in Georgia, which have long been accustomed to ready-made grants, now fear that they will be deprived of these opportunities. The West, which incites both NGOs and ordinary citizens to internal conflict in order to achieve its goals, is watching from the sidelines. As a result, the damage is done to the country and its citizens.

Middle East gets even more complicated

On November 27, 2024, a ceasefire agreement brought a temporary halt to the 13-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Brokered by multiple nations, including the United States, the deal requires both sides to withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days. Though the ceasefire offers hope, its ultimate success may hinge on broader geopolitical shifts, particularly recognition of Palestinian statehood by key global players like the U.S., Britain, and Israel. Such a move would not only mark a historic breakthrough but also set a new precedent for peace in the region.

Civil War Rekindled

Syria’s civil war, largely stagnant in recent years, has reignited with a rebel coalition seizing Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city. This marks the opposition’s first major territorial gain since 2016, breaking years of stalemate.

With Russian and Syrian airstrikes already targeting rebel positions, President Bashar al-Assad’s government has vowed to retake Aleppo. However, whether Damascus has the military capacity—or the backing from allies like Russia—to launch a successful counteroffensive remains uncertain. Control of Aleppo is not just a military prize but a strategic linchpin, and its capture by rebels could reshape the region’s balance of power.

Russia-Ukraine War

In Ukraine, the war's third year brings no sign of abating. Russia’s recent use of non-nuclear intermediate-range ballistic missiles has escalated the conflict, while veiled nuclear threats persist. The nuclear threat remains a key aspect of the current war of course. From the outset of the invasion, Putin issued veiled nuclear threats to discourage foreign intervention, and recent developments have signaled an even lower threshold for nuclear weapon use.This escalation is dangerous, as the use of even limited nuclear weapons could mark the beginning of a catastrophic and suicidal escalation that threatens global security. As the war stretches into its third year, there's little expectation that the war will be ongoing in 2025 as well. However, if Russia believes that Trump will ease sanctions or push for a peace settlement on terms favorable to her, the Kremlin may hold back on a major escalation in the short term.

Trump's BRICS Challenge

President-elect Donald Trump recently issued a stark warning to BRICS nations, threatening 100% tariffs should they pursue a new currency to rival the dollar. Donald Trump's declaration that BRICS countries would face 100% tariffs if they make any attempt to create a new currency to replace the dollar has significantly influenced media discourse. While these remarks supposedly reflect a protective stance from the United States, aimed at preserving its global economic dominance, they are likely to backfire. These comments align with Trump's protectionist policies and his agenda to bolster the U.S. position in international trade. However, they are unnecessary and ill-timed. The inherent limitations of BRICS financial infrastructures, coupled with the deep political and economic rifts within the group, will ultimately prevent any serious move to establish a currency that could rival the dollar. Even Putin has acknowledged these realities in recent conversations.

Rather than deterring BRICS countries, Trump's aggressive rhetoric may actually spur them to accelerate their efforts in this direction. Ironically, Trump's comments could signal a lack of confidence in the dollar’s unassailable dominance, potentially reshaping global trade dynamics in unexpected ways.