TODAY.AZ / Analytics

Lifting Iran sanctions will take months

08 April 2015 [10:30] - TODAY.AZ

/By AzerNews/

By Sara Rajabova

Though world powers and Iran have reached a framework agreement on the nuclear dispute, there is still a final deal which ought to be reached by the June 30 deadline before sanctions can truly be lifted.

In truth, the signing of a final deal has been viewed as more challenging than the brokering of the framework agreement.

While, many have discussed and predicted future developments in view of the recent diplomatic and political breakthrough, the inking of a final comprehensive deal remains for many a long way away. This unknown has left analysts to remain cautious when it comes to international sanctions against Iran and its impacts on the global energy market. That being said, many experts have said to be optimistic.

This deal has been reported as fragile as glass since it could be broken by any of the participating parties. One wrong move could lay waste months of negotiations.

Therefore, strong commitment on all sides needs to remain firm and steady as all final remaining differences are ironed out and Iran's nuclear dossier closed for good.

Jamsheed K. Choksy, the chairman of the department of Central Eurasian Studies and professor of Iranian Studies at Indiana University said in his interview with Day.Az website that the parameters for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action are indeed a major breakthrough--the first such one between Iran and the world in three decades.

However, he noted that for now it is only a "plan."

“The actual agreement still has to be written, signed, and implemented. Once the agreement goes into action, then true progress will occur," Choksy said.

Speaking about the lifting of Western sanctions on Iran, he said such restrictions will be not removed immediately.

"Despite the initial optimism, and claims by Iranian negotiators that sanctions will be lifted immediately, U.S. President Barack Obama when announcing the deal emphasized that sanctions would not be lifted fully until after the agreement began to be enforced. So, probably a few more months will pass before sanctions can go away, and then only gradually,” Chosky said.

He also added that the sanctions will return if Iran is seen as slowing its cooperation at any time.

Iran and the P5+1 states – the U.S., France, Britain, Russia and China plus Germany – issued a joint statement at the end of eight days of sensitive nuclear negotiations in the Swiss city of Lausanne on April 2.

Under Lausanne agreement's terms, Iran must slash its stockpile of enriched uranium that could be used in a nuclear weapon and cut by more than two-thirds the number of centrifuges that could be used to make more.

In return, UN sanctions and separate measures imposed unilaterally by the U.S. and EU will be gradually suspended as the global nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, confirms Iranian compliance.

The sides are scheduled to reach a comprehensive deal on the case by July 1.

Chosky went on to say that all other sanctions imposed on Iran, not linked with the nuclear problem, will remain in place.

"The U.S. has reiterated that sanctions on Iran for terrorism, for example, are not part of the current negotiations. Those will remain in place. The additional problems and related sanctions indicate that there still is a need for an overall grand bargain agreement between Iran and the U.S., an agreement which goes well beyond the nuclear issue to address and resolve all outstanding problems between the two nations."

The nuclear agreement with Iran is also considered to help to shed a light on Iran-U.S. enmity, which has lasted for over three decades. However, both sides made it clear that the final deal will only cover the nuclear issue and will not have any effect on Tehran-Washington frozen diplomatic ties.

Meanwhile, some experts and analysts believe that despite the long-standing enmity, the final deal and its implementation could lead to a gradual melting of ice between Tehran and Washington.

Chosky said the best possible outcome would be the gradual normalization of relations between western nations and Iran, followed by a reintegration of the Islamic Republic into the global systems.

“But Iran will have to stop threatening the U.S., EU, Israel, and neighboring nations in the Middle East and the Caucasus, it will have to stop funding terror and separatist groups, and start working with the world's nations as a responsible partner in order for full reintegration to occur," the expert said.

Chosky also believes that the nuclear deal with Iran will contribute to the normalization and development of ties with Tehran’s neighbors, as well as regional countries.

The removal of sanctions is expected to open new opportunities for Iran’s northern neighbor, Azerbaijan. This will lead to an increase of the trade turnover and investments between the two countries, as well as drive the elimination of all issues of concern in the bilateral cooperation.

“As sanctions are lifted, bilateral trade should increase which will be good for the economies of both countries,” Chosky said.


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