Armenia's rapid armament poses concerns for geopolitical balance in S Caucasus

Armenia continues its provocative activities in the region by purchasing lethal weapons from India and France. Many view such actions from the Armenian side as an act of revanchism and a continuation of its irredentist foreign policy. It is worth noting that Armenia was once the most militarised country in Europe, spending the largest portion of its GDP and human resources on the military. Only recently, following the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, did Armenia become the second most militarised country in Europe, after Ukraine.

To be more clear, Armenia has pursued such a foreign policy for over 30 years, and as a result of this policy, Armenia provoked a war in the South Caucasus in 2020, which led to its defeat. However, instead of taking a lesson from the humiliating defeat and relinquishing its provocative policies, Yerevan blamed Russia and its "outdated" weapons, which comprised 94 per cent of the Armenian arsenal. Armenia then sought to alter the sources for the purchase of weapons. Consequently, Yerevan doubled its military budget, which is expected to reach $1.7 billion for the first time in its history. Additionally, the military budget comprises six per cent of its GDP, a very high percentage compared to other countries.Soon, countries aiming to boost their defence industries, like India and France, offered their products to Armenia.Since 2020, Armenia has signed numerous contracts with these countries. Recently, media outlets reported an agreement with France to purchase Caesar howitzers and with India to purchase ATAGS (Advanced Towed Artillery Gun System) howitzers. According to the information, after testing six ATAGS, Armenia ordered 78 howitzers and requested some modifications. Naturally, this information concerns Azerbaijan. Many in Baku are evaluating Yerevan's attempts to determine if Azerbaijan has a response.

Speaking to Azernews, military expert Terlan Eyvazov noted that despite the Armenian Defense Ministry's aspiration to purchase lethal weapons from India and France, this will not be easy to acquire them. For example, it will take a year and a half for Armenia to acquire Caesar howitzers.

“These weapons are not products that can be assembled in advance and stored in a warehouse. They are manufactured strictly after an order is placed. Besides, due to the disadvantages of the weapons, their integration also takes time. The biggest disadvantage of ATAGS howitzers for Yerevan is that Armenia is a mountainous country. Although these weapons have long-range capabilities, they are very heavy, which is inconvenient for a country with predominantly mountainous terrain. Now, Armenia is asking India to reduce their weight. The fact that these weapons are mentioned in the press does not mean that they are ready and will be delivered to Armenia immediately. Their production and delivery will take a considerable amount of time,” the expert said.

As for their capabilities and Azerbaijan’s response, Terlan Eyvazov noted that ATAGS and CAESAR howitzers are high-quality and have a long range. Additionally, the shells of the howitzers are 155 mm and can hit targets at a distance of over 40 km.

“However, Azerbaijan is also taking measures against this. Even before the 44-day war, Azerbaijan had purchased DANA howitzers from the Czech Republic. After the war, Azerbaijan acquired DITAs, a more modern version of DANA, which outshines ATAGS. Azerbaijan even demonstrated these weapons at the arms exhibition held in Baku this year. Furthermore, media outlets reported that Baku ordered Nora B-52 howitzers from Serbia, which surpassed the French Caesar,” T. Eyvazov added.

Regarding Armenia's attempt to change the balance of power in the region, Terlan Eyvazov noted that it was in vain. He added that despite the Armenian press's attempts to hide it, the Armenian army lost 70 per cent of its arsenal in the war that took place four years ago. Additionally, due to Armenian soldiers abandoning their positions and fleeing, many of their weapons fell intact into the hands of the Azerbaijani army.

“The destroyed weapons belonging to the Armenian army are now displayed in an open-air museum in Azerbaijan. The weapons captured as trophies have been incorporated into the Azerbaijani arsenal. Therefore, Armenia is still engaged in replacing the weapons it lost. Considering that Azerbaijan is closely monitoring events in the region and taking adequate steps, it means that despite all of Armenia's efforts, a change in the balance of power in Armenia's favour in the region is unlikely in the coming years,” Terlan Eyvazov concluded.