Nuances of what's really happening on Lachin-Khankendi road - analysis

By Trend

While the peaceful protests of Azerbaijanis on the Lachin-Khankendi road continue, Ruben Vardanyan, the so-called "state minister" of the so-called "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic", and his subordinates keep spreading fake news.

Two days ago Vardanyan has announced that the illicit mining activities in Karabakh have been suspended. At the same time, the Armenians stated that they want to appeal to international organizations in order to conduct an international environmental assessment of these deposits and all processes there.

Armenians clearly pretend that they do not remember the demands of the protesters that the monitoring should be carried out by Azerbaijani representatives. That is, in fact, Vardanyan and his gang continue to stall for time and escalate the situation.

Previously, following the talks with the Russian peacekeepers' command on December 3 and 7, 2022, a group of experts from the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, the State Property Service under the Ministry of Economy, and AzerGold CJSC were going to begin preliminary monitoring of the illicit mineral resource exploitation, as well as emerging environmental implications on Azerbaijani lands, where the Russian peacekeepers are temporarily deployed, on December 10, 2022.

The expert team was expected to inspect the environmental condition at the 'Gizilbulagh' gold deposit and the 'Damirli' copper-molybdenum deposit, monitor various areas, organize cadastral property records, assess potential risks and threats to the environment, as well as to underground and surface water sources.

However, when arriving in the monitoring area, the expert group, accompanied by Russian peacekeepers, faced provocations. The planned initial inspection and monitoring did not take place due to the fact that the Russian peacekeepers not only did not create necessary conditions but also prevented for the entire process to carry on.

The observers from Baku were met by a group of local activists who stated that they would not allow the monitoring to happen. Negotiations on the spot did not bring results, and the trip to the second field followed exactly the same scenario: however, this time the Azerbaijanis who arrived were met not only by activists but also by Vardanyan.

As the Azerbaijani media wrote later, Vardanyan offered the ecologists who arrived from Baku to negotiate with him, but they refused, referring to the already existing agreement on monitoring. The trip was disrupted, and the Azerbaijanis returned to Shusha.

The incident angered eco-activists in the country, which then arrived in Shusha on December 12, and set up a tent camp at the post of Russian peacekeepers on the Lachin-Khankendi road, on the way out of the city. The protesters demanded that the Armenian side fulfill its obligations and that the Russian peacekeepers ensure the safety of the Azerbaijani delegation's trip to the mines. Since then, 19 days have passed, and the Azerbaijani activists do not even think to disperse.

When a couple of days later Khankendi realized that neither Nikol Pashinyan’s calls to Vladimir Putin nor his talks with Western leaders had produced the desired result, it was decided to move the confrontation with Azerbaijanis to the media field. Ruben Vardanyan started regular live broadcasts on social networks on a variety of platforms It was through Vardanyan that the international community, should have learned the main thing: Azerbaijan is allegedly blocking the Lachin road, carrying out a blockade of Karabakh, which threatens the region, if not with genocide (still too big a claim), then at least with a humanitarian catastrophe.

Since then, several rallies have been held in Khankendi and Yerevan, the participants of which spoke as one about readiness to fight to the end, their "unbreakable will" and blockade. A couple of times they have even compared the so-called blockade with the blockade of Leningrad by Nazi Germany, but this thesis was withdrawn as quickly as it appeared - probably because the Armenian side either realized that it was still too much, or because it was not sure of a positive reaction to such a comparison in Russia.

Baku calls these allegations totally untrue. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev even called them "another anti-Azerbaijani hysteria".

"The developments on the Lachin road are clear as day. This is our legitimate right. Our natural resources are being exploited and our natural resources are being transported. Those exploiting our natural resources are criminals according to any international legal norm. This is our territory recognized by the international community, and we have a legitimate demand for our public representatives, first of all, representatives of state bodies, to be able to conduct monitoring there. They should see what is going on there and demand that all illegal activity be stopped. This is our legitimate demand," President Ilham Aliyev said on December 24, thus, voicing the main demand of the protesters.

Meanwhile, contrary to the statements from the Armenian side, convoys of Russian peacekeeping forces are moving freely along the allegedly blocked Lachin road. The first footage of the cars belonging to the peacekeepers moving from Karabakh to Armenia was published on December 14, the second day of the protests. Since then, these caravans have been operating on the Khankendi-Yerevan route and back several times a day, including carrying humanitarian aid for the Armenian population. In addition, there were at least several cases (December 20, 24 and 25) when seriously ill patients, including a one-year-old child, were taken from the area of responsibility of the Russian peacekeepers to Armenia. On the way back, the convoy brought medical supplies to Khankendi.

Azerbaijanis, who are stationed 24 hours a day at the post of Russian peacekeepers on the Lachin road, say that they are ready to let other civilians pass. In order to prevent this from happening, Vardanyan called on the residents of Karabakh not to give in to the words spoken by Azerbaijanis. "Do not take it as a lie to say that you can drive in cars. They must leave this road, and only we will use it," he resented.

Ordinary people have no way of checking whether the Azerbaijanis will let them through. Only a few days ago, a group of Armenian activists tried to march from Khankendi to the site of the Azerbaijani action. The Russian contingent prepared in advance to prevent the representatives of the two peoples to organize a clash, but even before the peacekeepers, Karabakh activists were stopped by their own police. The security forces blocked them in the Renaissance Square in Khankendi, preventing them from leaving for Shusha. As the police explained to the people who filmed them, they could not guarantee the safety of the Armenian activists in case they went where they were going.

Nevertheless, the situation around Lachin road remains truly difficult. Yes, it is a little like a blockade, as much as the Armenian side would like, but it is clear to all the participants in this "cold war" that sooner or later the end will come. In Baku and Yerevan, they see this outcome in different ways: Azerbaijan intends to continue to achieve its goal, feeling weak Armenians, and Armenia will try with all its strength to delay the inevitable. However, things are getting worse and worse for Yerevan.