TODAY.AZ / Politics

Svante Cornel: “I do not think the possibility of revolution in Azerbaijan”

03 August 2005 [09:29] - TODAY.AZ
“It is not possible to say whether progress will be observed in the meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia to be held in Kazan”.
These words were told by the research director of the Caucasus-Middle Asia Institute attached to the John Hopkins University Svante Cornel in his interview to the Radio Liberty.

S.Cornel noting importance of the results of the meeting in Kazan for the elections stressed that if the good result for the nation and politicians of Azerbaijan is not obtained in the meeting, it can cause problems for the Yeni Azerbaijan Party.

The director explaining the goals of the intended visit of the USA defense minister Donald Rumsfeld to Azerbaijan informed that it is long period that Rumsfeld wants to a military base, at least for aircrafts to be established for the Pentagon in Apsheron, near Baku: “Anyone knows it. But Azerbaijan understands that by giving the base to the Pentagon it can worsen relations with Russia and Iran. That is why Azerbaijan did not give its consent about the base the Pentagon wants yet. Rumsfeld’s next visit to Baku is connected with it”. S.Cornel said that it very important for USA to have the military base in the Caucasus for its long-term strategy.

S.Cornel answered negatively to the question “Will and can Azerbaijan give the military base to America as to your opinion?” The director of the institute said answered that “I do not think so” and explained it so that USA policy on Azerbaijan is very shattered: “On one hand, the attitude of the Pentagon to Azerbaijan is very good; on the other hand, the relations of the USA State department with Azerbaijan are not so close. The department is interested with political problems, election questions, democratization processes, but for the Pentagon these questions are not so important. America needs to make clearer its policy on Azerbaijan and connect the positions with each-other. For example, anyone knows that the attitude of Rumsfeld to Azerbaijan is warm; on the other hand, Ilham Aliyev was not invited to USA yet. Such problems exist still. That is why I do not except that any result will be obtained now”. S.Cornel explaining the reasons of intensification of visits of different officials of USA recently noted that these visits are not associated only with democratization process. As to his opinion, the main interest of the USA officials to Azerbaijan is associated with stability’s in the country being able to be disturbed in case if the elections are not held correctly: “Such elections can cause in dangerous processes in Azerbaijan. That is why USA and all Western structures want to preserve stability in Azerbaijan and conduct works for the election to be held in a correct form”.

S.Cornel answered the question “What Azerbaijan should except from West in case if the parliamentary elections are held in a non-democratic way? What steps will be taken as to your opinion?” that after events happened in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan the reaction of West to this question will be sharper.

The director of the institute touching the perspective of the revolution in Azerbaijan said: “I do not think that the revolution is possible in Azerbaijan. Financial possibilities and police and soldiers of the authority are very strong. They were weak in Kyrgyzstan and Georgia. And they did not follow orders in Ukraine. I do not believe that the revolution can happen in Azerbaijan because the material-financial possibilities of the authority are very good in Azerbaijan. It is very difficult to make the revolution in Azerbaijan”.



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