Azerbaijani political expert: Armenia may be willing to resume hostilities with Azerbaijan in near future

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will hold consultations on Turkey-Armenia protocols with the Armenian American organizations in February. What do you expect from these consultations. What will be their outcome in your opinion?

Apparently, American political leaders would seek to persuade the Armenian lobby not to oppose ratification of the Turkish-Armenian protocols. The Obama Administration has adequate political power to ignore demands of lawmakers put forward by the Armenian lobby. In other words, extremely popular Obama does not need votes of Armenian voters and he can easily implement policies contrary to the objectives of this ethnic lobby.

To what extent challenges that Armenia faces are close and clear to the Armenian diaspora in the U.S.? Why does it oppose specific steps by Armenia in this issue?

Armenian diaspora, whether in the United States, France, Russia or anywhere else, has no special attachment to the Republic of Armenia as a country of origin. This is understandable since this nation was founded primarily on Azerbaijani lands, and the diaspora was formed by Armenians who supported Russia in World War I in the Ottoman Empire. They have their own accounts with Turkey, against which they unsuccessfully fought and were defeated. They see  Armenians of Armenia as expendable material in their own intrigue against Turkey.

That is why they do not understand today's dire situation of President Serzh Sargsyan, who needs to run the country- 18 percent decline in GDP, 45 percent decline in individual remittances from abroad (despite the fact that Armenia's GDP is more than 15 percent dependent on that money), negative demographics and holding aloof from all the important regional projects, dependence on handouts of Russia and international financial institutions.

As ironic it may seem, back in 1987 the Karabakh conflict was triggered with lies about economic backwardness of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region from the rest of Azerbaijan. However, exactly twenty years later, long-term and desperate economic backwardness of entire Armenia from Azerbaijan discredited Miatsum and credibility of the diaspora.

Today various statements are being made in Armenia itself in this regard. So, leader of Armenia’s Gnchakyan Party Lyudmila Sargsyan announced at the party meeting that Armenia has de facto lost its independence. Do you share Sargsyan’s views?

Armenia has lost its independence long ago. However, it should be noted that independence of a state is not a key political value for Armenians, at least for now. This is their vision of a political world. It is very different from ours, but it has a right to exist. Lack of independence in foreign policy of their own state is significant for the Armenians only in the sense that it impedes them in official diplomacy, where there is a demand for various negotiations with the states. But in this case their understanding of the policy conflicts with the generally accepted rules. Let's see how they will solve this contradiction.

In your opinion, what will happen next in Armenia in near future? How it may impact the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Armenia may want to resume hostilities with Azerbaijan in near future in an attempt to deprive Azerbaijan of growing strategic advantage. On the other hand, it is not Armenia that makes a decision about this. I am still inclined to think that Armenia’s patrons do not want to play lottery in a new war. Moreover, according to Armenian experts, areas around the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region no longer play buffer role. So, Azerbaijani army can easily attack targets anywhere in the former autonomous region. This is another reason why I look forward to an early start of Armenia’s withdrawal from Azerbaijan’s occupied lands.

A. Hasanov