Axis Information and Analysis: "Israeli MP assisted Iran on the Caucasus"

Same sources said that a few weeks earlier Mark Sofer, Deputy Director General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, at first orally, and then in a written form, charged the Israeli ambassador to Baku Arthur Lenk with the preparation of Livni’s visit. Lenk heads the embassy in Azerbaijan for less than a year, and a successful putting into effect of such an important event could noticeably raise his authority in the opinion of local officials and his Israeli colleagues. Especially with regard of the fact that since 1998, when the head of the government of that time, Benjamin Netanyahu, paid a visit to Baku, none of the Israeli prime-ministers or ministers did come any more to the capital of Azerbaijan. However, by the end of the month an instruction to stop preparations for Livni's arrival unexpectedly came to the embassy from the central apparatus of the foreign policy department. It was marked in the received notice that the visit is put off indefinitely, not specifying the reasons for such decision. Same diplomatic sources claim that the change of plans of the Foreign Ministry Head was dictated by ballyhoo caused by the trip to Azerbaijan of the member of the Israeli Knesset, Yosef Shagal, representing the Yisrael Beytenu (Israel Our Home) political party. Before his repatriation to Israel in 1990, Shagal (Shchegolev by his real name), lived in Azerbaijan, and that's why, following his election this March as a member of the Knesset he made his first visit abroad to this very country. He paid a visit to Baku on May 15-16, together with another Israeli member of parliament, and the representatives of Euro-Asian Jewish Congress. Statements made by Shagal at his meetings with journalists, have echoed not only in Azerbaijan, but have also drawn the attention of Armenian and Iranian establishment. According to some Israeli diplomats, this visit caused damage to the development of normal relationship of the Jewish state with all countries of the South Caucasus. Moreover, Shagal’s public statements are being used now by the Iranian officials to strengthen the regional positions of Tehran that contradict to the American interests.

At a press conference on May 15, the representative of the Israel Our Home party declared: "Israel supports a fair position of Azerbaijan in the Upper Karabakh conflict". Next day, in the interview to the online Day.Az edition he promised support of the Israeli parliament to achieve cancellation of the 907-th amendment of the US Congress, forbidding the American government to render aid to Azerbaijan, adopted in 1992 in connection with the conflict in Karabakh.

Shagal spoke as though on behalf of all Israel and the Knesset in particular, and his words were interpreted by many Azerbaijan and Armenian journalists as the official position of the Jewish state. It was promoted by the circumstance that the majority of the South-Caucasian journalists do not particularly understand the twists and turns of the Israeli domestic policy. They did not go deep in such nuances as Shagal's absence of any political experience (that he himself recognizes) or his party's opposition status. For them it was only the essence of his statements that mattered. Actually, official Israel traditionally takes an emphatically neutral position in the issue of the Karabakh conflict. In parallel, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of this country pays a great value to the development of normal relationships both with Azerbaijan, and with Armenia. Therefore, according to the above mentioned sources, Shagal's statements have caused a perceptible damage to the development of dialogue between Tel Aviv and Yerevan.

Moreover, their wide publicity promoted strengthening of the pro-Iranian attitudes in Armenia, the growth of which has been recently marked on the background of a price increase for the Russian gas (April 2006) and the rapproachement between Moscow and Ankara (2004-2005). Now the Iranian officials got an opportunity to claim at meetings with the Armenian representatives that the recent visits of the President of Azerbaijan to the United States and of the head of the Israeli Foreign Ministry to Turkey, as well as the performances of the Israeli member of parliament in Baku and disturbances in Southern Azerbaijan are all links of the same chain. According to Teheran's allegation, all these events have been testifying Washington's attempts to realize its old plans regarding the creation of a strategic alliance including the United States, Israel, Turkey and Azerbaijan, and directed against Iran and Armenia. Last months the leadership of the Islamic Republic has been aiming at strengthening its relations with Armenia to exclude the possibility of its cooperation with the United States in case of an American-Iranian military conflict.

Not incidentally, the first foreign trip of the new Foreign Minister of Iran Manucher Mottaki was to Yerevan (February 2006). And it was there, when he had declared a real opportunity of participation of Armenia in the project of transportation of the Iranian gas to Europe. In turn, Washington has been making efforts to neutralize Tehran's activity on the Armenian direction. Against this background it becomes obvious, that the declarations of the Israeli member of parliament in Baku have served just to the interests of Iran.

While in Baku, in dialogue with the journalists Yosef Shagal repeatedly raised a question of opening of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tel Aviv. Israeli diplomats are engaged in the solution of this problem from the very moment of establishment of mutual relations in 1992. Till now their efforts have brought no result because of Baku's fears to aggravate its complicated relations with Tehran, and also to lose political and economic support of the Arab countries, in particular, of the Persian Gulf monarchies.

At last, during the April visit of the president Ilham Aliev to Washington, with active assistance of the American administration, it was possible to achieve progress in the given issue. The president of Azerbaijan gave his basic consent to opening of the diplomatic mission already in the near future. Now the Israeli diplomats are afraid that Shagal’s attempt to show his own role in the solution of this issue has drawn an excessive attention to this theme not only in Azerbaijan, but also in the Muslim world as a whole.

In fact, it is one thing when those are the representatives of the local Jewish community who express their opinion on the matter (that was noted recently), and absolutely different thing when similar statements are made by a member if the Israeli parliament, especially, speaking on the behalf of the official leadership of the country. In consequence, the opening of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tel Aviv might be now postponed indefinitely. Moreover, at the meetings with the officials in Baku Yosef Shagal put forward various offers concerning bilateral cooperation in the oil business.
According to the diplomatic sources, the statements of the member of parliament on the issue have been based mostly on publications in the Internet. He, naturally, had no authority to discuss such matters with the officials of Azerbaijan. Particularly because the party represented by Shagal, is in opposition and has no relation to formation of the country's official policy, energy policy included. Diplomats say that Shagal has simply mislead his interlocutors, and this could only harm the further development of mutual cooperation...

Our sources mark that, at the best, Yosef Shagal actually represents his own party. Though its leader Avigdor Liberman, the former head of the prime minister's office and former Minister of Infrastructures and Transports, has been known as a person tempted in the big politics. He played one of the key roles in development of relations of Israel practically with all the CIS countries, and never allowed himself to make such unequivocal statements in favor of one of the concflicting sides in the post-Soviet space. In this connection the representatives of the Israeli Foreign Ministry believe that Liberman had only general information on Shagal's trip. The same sources consider that in a much greater extent, declarations of the Israeli MP in Baku were coordinated with the leadership of Euro-Asian Jewish Congress, rather than with Israel Our Home party. The mentioned organization pursues its own interests, quite often depending on realtionships of its leaders-sponsors with the regional political elites, in Central Asia and the South Caucasus in particular. And those interests not always coincide with the interests of Israel. That fact eloquently testifies to it, that for all years of rule of Ariel Sharon (2001-2005), Alexander Mashkevich, the head of the Congress, with great efforts managed to meet him only a few times, and that, as a rule, for a few minutes, just for a joint photo session. Wherewith he had to achieve in every possible way the favor of the nominal chief Ashkenazi Rabbi of Israel Yona Metzger, to demonstrante at least somehow his "close relationship" with the Israeli establishment. Against this background, it is not surprising that after the trip of Yosef Shagal, the Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs had to cancel her visit to Baku. Arrival of Tsipi Livni to Azerbaijan would have legitimized the MP's declarations. In this case Yerevan would have received weighty acknowledgement of the fears concerning the Israeli support of Baku in the Karabakh conflict. And it would become even more complex for Americans to keep Armenians from further rapproachement with Iran.

President of Azerbajan Ilham Aliev himself is hardly interested to advertise so obviously the activization of contacts with the Israelis, which would inevitably be reflected in the relations with the largest Muslim states. In such simple a way the "Russian" member of the parliament managed to sensibly affect the course of the big-time politics. The only thing is that his "success" has hardly gone on advantage both of Israel and of the countries of the South Caucasus.

By Sami Rozen

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