bp predicts oil demand to peak in 2025

Britain's bp company predicts that by 2025, global daily oil demand will peak at 102 million barrels. At the same time, the volume of energy produced by wind and solar power plants will increase significantly.

Azernews reports that this is stated in the latest edition of bp's annual report, Energy Outlook.

bp analysts consider two scenarios for global energy development: one based on current trends, and another in which CO2 emissions will reach zero by 2050 (Net Zero).

If current trends continue, the demand for primary energy sources will rise until the mid-2030s, after which it will generally stabilize. Thus, the increase in energy consumption in developing countries will be offset by decreased demand in developed countries and China. In this scenario, energy demand is expected to increase by 5 percent by 2050 compared to 2022. Under the Net Zero scenario, energy demand will begin to decline by the end of this decade, eventually falling to 25 percent below 2022 levels by 2050.

According to bp analysts, oil consumption will decrease after 2025 in both scenarios, though the extent of the decrease will vary. Under current market conditions, oil demand is projected to reach 75 million barrels per day by 2050. However, if the necessary conditions for achieving zero emissions are met, demand could fall to 25-30 million barrels per day.

If current trends persist, gas demand is expected to increase by about a third by 2050, mainly due to growth in developing countries. Conversely, under the Net Zero scenario, gas consumption will decrease by half, primarily because developed economies will shift to alternative energy sources.

Wind and solar energy volumes are projected to increase by about eight times by 2050 under current scenarios, and by 14 times if zero emissions are achieved.