Interests of Azerbaijan in the background of USA-Iran hypothetical war

In any case, in Washington officials’ explanations, majority of fear elements relatively previous period, caused appearance of opinion of launching of USA-Iran war. But in reality, media, as well as administrative members because of speculating enough in the matter of war, messages addressed by Bush administration to Teheran, does not cause reaction in public opinion, as it was before. But processes going on in the region and in the territory, have increased supposition of launching of USA-Iran war. Arguments for and against of launching of war are quite enough, before studying its impact opportunities to Azerbaijan, it is inevitable to analyze these arguments.

Opposite - arguments

a) Military operations implemented in Afghanistan and Iraq had resulted USA to have serious prestige loss. It is not believable for Washington to launch new war having signed two wars and achieved none of them during the period of first presidency. It should be taken into consideration that, war in Iraq and Afghanistan has not been completed yet and these processes works much more against Washington. In this case, it is real version for President Bush to dedicate his presidential period to change of image.

b) Federal budget of USA is not in the power of taking the expenses of new war over himself. Beginning anti-terror operations against Afghanistan up to date shortage of created in USA state budget has extended crisis in the country economy. Analogical crises case is observed in world economy. Launching of military operations against Iran will increase shortages of in federal budget, as well as it will leave USA economy in palsy situation. At present , budget shortages of USA has reached to fantastic limit -450- 600 milliard dollars, war of Iran can cause increase of this figure at least 50%.

c) Not only launching of military operations in Persian Gulf, as well as political decision adopted in on it, will cause reincrease of oil prices. This factor might cause regress of USA economy, as well as economy of countries dependent of oil import.

d) War of Iraq has deepened political separation into poles in the world; launch of analogical operations against Iran will expand USA-European Union, USA- Russia, USA-China, Christian-Islam confrontation. If we take into consideration this process that it will violate political, economical rules of the world, restraint impact possibilities of international organizations to these processes, cause to blank prestige, then there are enough serious reasons for not launching war.

Arguments

There are three factors that make inevitable for launching war:

a) Iran owning nuclear weapon will be hard blow for USA which is losing its impact possibilities in the Middle East. Getting nuclear weapon of the country entering “Evil triangle” will reduce interests of Washington in South Caucasus, Central Asia, and Persian Gulf, Middle East regions, that means formal character of super power status of USA; destroy of policy pursued in the last 50 years in the region. There is much to lose, therefore, Washington in order to compensate its interests can launch war not taking into consideration the factors:

a) necessity to image change b) Increase of budget shortage c) oil prices raise d) deepening of political separation.

b) USA leaving Middle East region defeated it will cause weakening of superpower status. To prevent it, USA with dominoes principle, it is obliged to wage on with all states in the region, which is in hostile relation. Washington trying to forget Afghanistan failure with operations in Iran, and now it can make effort to substitute military operations against Iran to forget Iraq failure.

c)The third and the main factor decrease of oil deposits year by year in the world and reaching of confrontation level of fight to observe regions rich with oil among the super powers, confirms realization of USA military operation idea against Iran.

And… concerns of Azerbaijan

As it is evident, launch of USA against USA, or avoid it there are many grounds for it. Arguments for war can indirectly or indirect way has impact on Azerbaijan.

a) Azerbaijan-Iran relations basing on contradiction confronted history, political, economical and strategically opportunities, neighboring country owing nuclear war; it will not satisfy Azerbaijan in any sense. In this context, concerns of Azerbaijan adjusted to interests of USA and other states.

b) USA, leaving the territory as a failure state, will result strengthening of super powers positions in South Caucasus, as well as in Azerbaijan. Strengthening impact of Russia and Iran to the region will raise dependence level of Azerbaijan to maximum.

c) Launch war against Iran, automatically will lead participation of Azerbaijan in this process. USA-Iran war in South Caucasus region will reach non- stable limit, where tense relation system formed. This leaves political, economical and statehood concerns of Azerbaijan under blow. It is true, Azerbaijan can get use of USA-Iran war, in accord with agreement to return its occupied territories back, but related it, launch of war in the territory of neighboring country, will impact on Azerbaijan in economical , as well as from political view point to weaken , increase its dependence level.

APA-analytical group