Currently, Azerbaijan ranks first in terms of the geography of pipeline gas supplies. We supply natural gas to 16 countries, and the number of these countries is growing every year. It will continue to be so.

This was stated by President Ilham Aliyev, speaking at the opening ceremony of the Annual Meetings of the Islamic Development Bank Group for 2026.

Germany, Austria and Albania have started receiving Azerbaijani gas this year. Azerbaijan plans to increase production through new deposits, and it will have something to support its partners for a long time. Requests from those wishing to import Caspian blue fuel do not stop. And many people today are interested in the question: will Armenia be among them?

This is not an idle question. Recently, the Russian side, which is the main supplier of gas to Armenia, announced its intentions to revise the fuel price for Yerevan if it continues to move West.

On May 26, Russian media reported that Armenia had received a letter from Russia about the possibility of unilaterally denouncing the agreement on the supply of natural gas, petroleum products and rough diamonds. In a letter from Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev to the Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructures of Armenia, it was stated that Russia may unilaterally suspend or denounce the agreement on the supply of natural gas, petroleum products and rough diamonds to the republic, signed in December 2013, if Yerevan continues the process of joining the EU.

Under the 2013 agreement, Russia indefinitely abolished export duties on supplies of petroleum products, gas and diamonds to Armenia. An additional agreement to the 2013 contract, signed at the end of 2019, set the price of Russian gas for Armenia at $165 per thousand cubic meters. Today, according to Russian media, Armenia receives Russian gas for $ 177 per thousand cubic meters, while it goes to Europe for $ 600. The difference is huge, and it stems from the preferences provided by membership in the EAEU and the Customs Union, as well as the status of an outpost and a "natural ally" once assigned to Armenia.

Now that Yerevan has definitely charted a course to Europe, the word "if" can no longer be used. Everything is going to make Russian gas as expensive for Armenia, aspiring to the EU, as it is for other EU members. At the same time, the probability of Armenia's admission to the EU is zero. At least in the medium term. This means that the country will remain without EU membership and without cheap gas. Unlike apricots, tomatoes and cognac rejected by Russia, which the EU has already promised to add, Europe will not be able to help Armenia with gas.

Can neighboring Iran help? There is a price problem here, which has never satisfied the Armenian side, and the Iranian partners do not want to lower the price. The country receives small amounts by barter - in exchange for electricity.  

The other day, Chairman of the RA Public Services Regulatory Commission Mesrop Mesropyan told reporters that Armenia may start buying gas from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iran in the event of an increase in Russian gas prices. According to him, the Armenian authorities are considering all possible scenarios in this case.

The current gas tariffs will remain in place until the beginning of 2027, and then it will be seen.

Armenia receives more than 2 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually at a discounted price. According to Russian experts, Yerevan will not be able to replace these supplies. The small amounts that come from Iran are subject to certain restrictions. So, in winter, in the northern part of Iran, as a rule, there is a shortage of fuel, and supplies come to naught. 

As for purchases from Azerbaijan, Russian experts are less clear in their assessments. Azerbaijani gas supplies are quite realistic. But what will be the price? Besides, the infrastructure was destroyed during the conflict. Georgia receives Azerbaijani gas at a discounted price, as politics is more important for Baku in relations with this country than commerce. And Armenia should not expect such benefits, experts say.

One could argue about that. Commerce plays the last role for Azerbaijan in the newly established trade relations with Armenia.

Speaking at the international forum "COP29 and Green Vision for Azerbaijan" at ADA University, President Ilham Aliyev said that Armenia could potentially be a recipient of Azerbaijani gas following the example of Georgia. It will be beneficial for her, given the preferential price for gas supplied to Georgia. "From the point of view of proximity and infrastructure, of course, it would be natural to have this kind of cooperation," the head of state said.

Yerevan reacted immediately. Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan said that Armenia is ready to discuss the issue of gas purchases from Azerbaijan. In his opinion, it will be good if Armenia buys Azerbaijani gas.

Both the opening of transit and the supply of fuel to Armenia are political decisions. Armenia receives gasoline from Azerbaijan at a discounted price, and this is also an important political decision. At this stage, the task is to give the Armenian side a taste of normal relations and peace. Baku demonstrates its peacefulness and good intentions with practical steps and gradually accustoms the Armenian society to good neighborliness. If initially gasoline from Azerbaijan was met with hysteria, today Armenians are trying to refuel at those gas stations where they sell relatively cheap Azerbaijani fuel. The same will happen with gas. Of course, first there may be a revolt of housewives who refuse to cook khorovats on gas from Azerbaijan. But it won't last long.

However, one could talk about a "housewives' revolt" in today's situation, and the issue of importing Azerbaijani gas for Armenia is far from today's or even tomorrow's business. In Armenia, when talking about the desire to receive Azerbaijani gas, they say nothing about the lack of necessary infrastructure. Unlike oil, gas cannot be transported by rail. Only if we are talking about liquefied natural gas (LNG). But we are talking about pipeline gas. And Armenian officials, too, we are sure. Because pipeline gas is more cost-effective for consumers. LNG is more expensive due to the costs of its liquefaction, transportation and regasification. Armenia, one might say, is located on the other side of the street, but gas supplies there are currently impossible due to the lack of gas transportation infrastructure. 

For the first time, the Armenian side spoke about the desire to buy gas from Azerbaijan three years ago. Speaking at the forum in Tbilisi, Deputy Minister of Territorial Administration Hakob Vardanyan shared his dream of restoring Azerbaijani gas imports and turning Armenia into a transit country for natural gas from Azerbaijan. Vardanyan recalled that in Soviet times, it was Azerbaijani gas that came to Armenia, and through three powerful gas pipelines at once. In his opinion, the Armenian side will be able to restore them.

The head of the Azerbaijan Petroleum Research Center (CNIA), Ilham Shaban, told that the gasification of Armenia began with Azerbaijani gas. The ceremony took place on February 12, 1960 at the Theater Square. A huge symbolic torch was set up there, which was lit to mark the beginning of the gasification of the republic. Armenia lived on Azerbaijani gas until it became dependent in 1991.

According to Shaban, the gas was supplied via the Hajigabul-Gazakh-Ijevan-Yerevan main pipeline. In 1976, construction of a new gas pipeline infrastructure began - the Yevlakh-Barda-Aghdam-Askeran-Khankendi-Shusha-Lachin-Gerus-Shahbuz (NAR) pipeline. The highway was built for two years. In the 80s, an additional 70-kilometer pipe was built from the border of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic to Yerevan.

During the years of the Karabakh conflict, the pipeline was inactive and fell into disrepair. To provide the separatist entity with gas, a 50-kilometer-long pipe was illegally laid from Khankendi to Armenia, and it ran along the Lachin road. The gas pipeline, which in Soviet times went to Armenia through the territory of Azerbaijan, was destroyed. Armenia pumped gas to the occupied territories, which it received from Russia through the territory of Georgia.

Well, if we talk about Turkmen gas, then these are frivolous hopes based on the absence of the same gas transportation infrastructure between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Moreover, there is also no infrastructure for transporting gas from Turkmenistan to the other shore of the Caspian Sea. Barter supplies through Iran are unreliable and complicated by the underdeveloped domestic gas transportation network in Iran. And, of course, the prices.

Today, Armenia finds itself in a difficult situation. In other circumstances, she could have counted on Azerbaijan. At one time, he helped to overcome the energy crisis in Georgia. Given Yerevan's conscientiousness in following the peace agenda, it could have supported this neighbor if the pipelines had not been destroyed.

By the way, TRIPP assumes the laying of the gas pipeline. But this is also a matter for the future.