The natural resources of the Central Asian countries are increasingly attracting the attention of Europe and the United States. As you know, meetings were held in the format of the USA-Central Asia and the European Union-Central Asia. Especially many documents were signed following the results of the second one, up to the energy security project... Armenia.

The underground wealth of the region's countries has become an object of increased interest in Western circles. First of all, these are, of course, rare earth metals, critical raw materials, of which there are plenty in the Central Asian region. The region is really very rich and has great potential. And it is rich not only in critical raw materials.

Recently, people have suddenly started to remember about the almost forgotten Turkmen gas, or rather, about the possibilities of its delivery to Europe. We are talking about the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project, which has long been archived.

A bit of history. In 1996, Europe and the United States became interested in Turkmenistan's vast gas reserves and began to think about how to deliver them from the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea. In 1999, the Turkmen government signed an agreement with American companies to study the route of the proposed pipeline. In the same year, at the ECO event in Istanbul, Turkiye, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan signed a number of agreements on the construction of an underwater gas pipeline. However, the unresolved legal status of the sea and the discontent of Russia and Iran stopped the development of the process. And soon the rich Shah Deniz field was discovered in Azerbaijan, after which Baku lost interest in the transit of Turkmen gas. The country itself became a gas exporter and saw no reason to invest in other projects. At the end of December 2020, Azerbaijani gas went to Europe. Soon we will celebrate the fifth anniversary of the launch of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which is an integral part of the Southern Gas Corridor.

For some reason, Azerbaijan has always been expected to take some decisions and steps on the issue of the underwater pipeline, although our country acted only as a transit country in the project.

In August 2018, at a press conference with then German Chancellor Angela Merkel, President Ilham Aliyev once again pointed out that the decision on the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline should be made by the gas owner country, and the transit country should not take initiatives. According to the President, Azerbaijan, as the owner of gas, launched the construction of a 3,500-kilometer gas pipeline and allocated large financial resources. "Therefore, if the eastern part of the Caspian Sea decides to transport its gas to world markets through the territory of Azerbaijan, we can certainly consider this with great interest. But this should not be our decision, but the decision of the opposite side," he stressed.

In July 2023, speaking at the Shusha Global Forum, President Ilham Aliyev said that "to ensure additional volumes of gas from the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea, it is necessary, firstly, to lay a Trans-Caspian gas pipeline along its bottom, and secondly, to build something like the Southern Gas Corridor from Baku to Europe. The main question is who will finance these important projects? We don't have an answer to it."

No one has an answer to this question, because due to the policy of decarbonization, European banks have stopped financing hydrocarbon projects. In previous years, the partners expected Azerbaijan to invest in the project, but the Shah Deniz gas completely changed this situation. Turkmenistan, which owns the gas, did not take the initiative.

Who will pay? This issue came up again after Dylan Morgan, Vice President of Chevron's Eurasian division, brought the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline back on the agenda the other day. According to media reports, Morgan said that the steady trend of the Caspian Sea towards shallowing challenges existing transport logistics and forces the search for new "green" approaches to the movement of oil and gas along the trans-Caspian route. According to him, pipelines remain the safest place for the supply of oil and gas, and it is their use that must be sought if we are talking about a sustainable and responsible approach.

Morgan stated this while speaking at the SPE 2025 Caspian Technical Conference in Baku at the end of November.

Earlier, in September, Luke Coffey, a senior researcher at the Hudson Institute, wrote in an article for Arab News that the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline fits perfectly into the US foreign policy agenda, including the "Trump Route" (TRIPP). In his opinion, Donald Trump could follow the path of Clinton, who in the 90s supported pipelines from the Caspian coast to Europe. There has not been a more favorable opportunity to realize the dream of a Trans-Caspian pipeline since the 90s, the expert believes.

Earlier, in May, the issue of the possibility of building a Trans-Caspian gas pipeline was raised at a meeting of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was asked if he believes that the construction of this pipeline is in the interests of the United States. The answer was, "I think the answer is yes."

"I do not think that the issue of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline can be resolved. It is tied to Turkmen gas, and Turkmenistan never assumes any obligations. Therefore, the project contains great risks," said economic expert, head of the Azerbaijan Petroleum Research Center (CNIA) Ilham Shaban. According to him, nothing is clear there. Nothing is particularly clear about the financing. European financial institutions are refusing to finance measures to expand the Southern Gas Corridor, despite the fact that European partners are asking for increased supplies. And soon Europe is going to abandon carbon fuels. "President Ilham Aliyev said well about this.: "Do we look like fools who will invest tens of billions of dollars in gas that they won't need?" So the financing of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline is a big question. Europe has set a course to reduce gas consumption. It meets its current needs with American LNG. In the future, he plans to "pull" green energy from other parts of the world. Although Europe itself has wind turbines, it relies on alternative energy sources from other countries. It is planned to build highways for the delivery of solar energy from Africa. A more realistic option, which is already being implemented, is a green energy corridor from Central Asia through Azerbaijan, Georgia and further along the bottom of the Black Sea to Europe. Therefore, Europe will not invest tens of billions in new gas transportation infrastructure to import Turkmen gas. And what the American side is saying is purely political statements that we have been hearing for almost thirty years," said Ilham Schaban.

It should be recalled that a few months ago, the European Commission stated that Turkmenistan could play a role in the EU's efforts to diversify gas supplies through the Southern Gas Corridor. At the same time, the EC clarified that decisions regarding the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project remain within the competence of Turkmenistan, private investors and regional partners. In addition, according to the current rules, the EU can no longer invest budget funds in international projects related to fossil energy resources, the EC warned.

Given this position, it is unclear how the European Union can count on the delivery of Turkmen gas to Europe, and even through the Southern Gas Corridor. Turkmenistan has the fourth largest gas reserves in the world. However, due to the lack of pipelines to enter large markets, the country has so far failed to capitalize on this wealth. Now European banks no longer finance oil and gas projects, putting all the costs on the owners of the resources and their good neighbors, as evidenced by the comment from the European Commission. American figures are clearly off topic, raising the issue.

Two years ago, in an interview with Trend, co-founder and co-chairman of the energy startup Trans-Caspian Resources, former U.S. Ambassador to Turkmenistan Allan Mustard said: if Turkmenistan does not act before the EU finds alternative gas sources, the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project will become unviable. "The window of opportunity is closing fast. The policy of switching from hydrocarbons to renewable energy sources has a profound impact on the support of MFIs," the expert said.

The fact that the window of opportunity may be closing seems to have begun to be thought about in Ashgabat. In March of this year, Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, in an interview with Euronews TV channel, announced his readiness to work closely with Europe on natural gas supplies.  "Turkmenistan is ready to work closely with European partners on the issue of natural gas supply. One of the ways for targeted actions is the implementation of the trans-Caspian route," the Turkmen leader said. According to him, the creation of an underwater infrastructure in the Caspian meets the economic requirements of coastal states.

Apparently, Turkmenistan is finally ready to solve the unresolved problem of delimiting the seabed with Azerbaijan, which has also hindered projects of underwater communications. Recently, this country, which is closed to international initiatives, has begun to open up to the world, and relations between Baku and Ashgabat are experiencing a real boom.

Detractors claim that Azerbaijan is not involved in the project because it is afraid of competition. But this, of course, is not a serious argument. The country has enough gas to fulfill all its contractual obligations by the time Europe seriously decides to abandon gas. In addition, one cannot but agree with Azerbaijani expert Ilham Shaban: there is much more politics than economics in the current actualization of the project. Because the most important question remains open: who will pay?