Today.Az » Politics » TRIPP: How Armenian doubts hinder regional breakthrough
18 November 2025 [11:11] - Today.Az
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Marco Rubio Alison Hooker
arrived in Yerevan on Monday. The main topic of the meetings is TRIPP (the
Zangezur Corridor), as well as the opening of communications between Armenia
and Turkiye.
It's time to remind you that a conference entitled
"Crossroads of the World: Development of regional communications and
cooperation" was held in Yerevan last Friday. Armenian Prime Minister
Nikol Pashinyan spoke about how things are going with TRIPP and what he plans
to do so that the project does not turn into a long-term construction.
In this case, the implementation of the project depends
entirely on the Armenian side. Azerbaijan has done everything in its power to
ensure the diplomatic basis of the project, and it can only act further if it
is asked to do so. He could have built roads and pipelines himself, and then
the issue would have been resolved much faster. But Armenia is not Georgia, it
is still far from such cooperation. If Azerbaijan and Armenia were good
neighbors, there would be no problems. But so far there is no delimited border
between the two countries, there are no interstate relations, which excludes
partnership. The lack of clear borders, of course, is currently the number one
obstacle to the implementation of the Zangezur Corridor. And Pashinyan is right
when he says that the delimitation process should be continued in the southern
section of the border, and not in the north, as previously planned.
It should be recalled that in January of this year, the
eleventh meeting of the border delimitation commissions between the two
countries took place at the border. As a result of the discussions, it was
decided to start a complex of works on the delimitation of the state border
from the northern section - from the junction of the borders of Azerbaijan,
Armenia and Georgia and further south to the border of Azerbaijan and Armenia
with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
In September, after the Washington meeting, Azerbaijan and
Armenia exchanged delegations led by Deputy Prime Ministers Shahin Mustafayev
and Mher Grigoryan. Reaching an agreement on the construction of communications
through Zangezur actualized the shift of priorities in the issue of
delimitation from north to south. The delimitation of the northern sections, especially
in the direction of Gazakh region, where the issue of the return of three
exclave villages to Azerbaijan, may be delayed for a long period, and the
implementation of the Zangezur project is not expected. Therefore, it became
necessary to start discussions on the delimitation and clearance of certain
sections of the border line in order to build appropriate infrastructure and
synchronize actions to create communications.
"For example, to start the construction of railways,
power lines, etc., "on the ground" requires the availability of
appropriate infrastructure. And this, first of all, requires determining the
jurisdiction of the country so that the builder knows in which territory of the
country they are working," Nikol Pashinyan said, speaking at a conference
on Friday.
The Armenian prime minister said that TRIPP will have
several railways, power lines, pipelines, among which there may be a gas
pipeline, an oil pipeline, cables, and so on.
I think this is not entirely true. The Trump Route for Peace
and Prosperity is a communications project leading from the western borders of
Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Armenia may include TRIPP in
its "Crossroads of the World," but in reality, the agreements reached
in Washington imply the route of the Zangezur corridor. Other roads and
pipelines that the American partners will (if they will) build in Armenia are
not related to TRIPP. Azerbaijan is not going to obstruct the development of
transport and other communications in the neighboring country, but it should
not be forgotten that most of them, not only the Zangezur corridor, will come
from Azerbaijani territory. The same oil and gas pipelines that Nikol Pashinyan
is talking about will be built to deliver Azerbaijani energy resources. It is
unlikely that American contractors will pull pipes from Iran. There is a pipe
from Iran, but it is too narrow and not designed for large gas supplies, and
the construction of a new gas pipeline in Armenia has not taken place, although
it has been discussed for many years.
Azerbaijan is not interested in what else Yerevan is
planning as part of its "Crossroads of the World." This is really an
internal matter of Armenia. The road to Nakhchivan is another matter. In this
case, Azerbaijan cannot be considered a third party. The road, like other
communications, will run from Azerbaijan to Azerbaijan, and regardless of the
fact that the transit territory belongs to Armenia, it is not serious to record
it in third parties. This is exactly what the Armenian Prime Minister tried to
do, speaking at a conference in Yerevan.
Once again, the Azerbaijani side is interested in this
project as an opportunity to establish unhindered and short-term communication
with its autonomy, which has remained under blockade since the beginning of the
Karabakh conflict. Cargo delivery, provision of NAR with Azerbaijani gas and
electricity. It was precisely these tasks that Baku sought from Yerevan.
Meanwhile, this corridor can bring economic dividends to Armenia, and its
stubbornness for five years has been completely illogical.
Over time, as the issue of delimitation progresses, and
especially after the signing of the peace treaty, other communications between
Azerbaijan and Armenia that operated before the conflict will be unblocked.
There are roads that, although unsuitable for international freight
transportation within the Middle Corridor, are suitable for communication
between the two countries. There are gas pipelines through which Armenia once
received Azerbaijani gas. One of the pipes stretched through Lachin and Goris
to Nakhchivan and further to Yerevan. It is unknown what condition the gas
pipeline is in now. This route can also be restored as part of TRIPP. Moreover,
Nikol Pashinyan himself complained at the Crossroads conference about the
relief of Syunik. Why bother with a new route when experts in the Soviet years
had already laid the most suitable one.
It is good that the Armenian Prime Minister is aware of the
indispensability of the old railway through Meghri. Before, I remember, he
offered Azerbaijan other options for communication with the NAR, which were
immediately rejected by the Azerbaijani side. Now he himself admits that the
railway within the framework of the TRIPP project will definitely run through
the south of Armenia, along the route of the former railway, because there are
no other possible options, and if there are, they will be ten times more
expensive.
As for other communications, in particular the gas pipeline
and power transmission lines, it is planned to lay them further north due to
geographical factors. By the way, Goris is just to the north. The Armenian side
should not bother its head, but restore the previous route. It passed through
the previously occupied territories - through Agdam, Askeran, Khankendi, Shusha
and Lachin, so the Azerbaijani side will also have to carry out a huge amount
of work.
Earlier, Nikol Pashinin had already announced that the
implementation of TRIPP will begin after the parliamentary elections in
Armenia, in the second half of 2026. In addition, Armenia has not yet decided
on the terms for which the project will be placed under the management of the
American side. I remember that at the meeting in Washington on August 8, 99
years were discussed. Now Pashinyan is talking about options: 49 or 99.
But these are the affairs of Yerevan and Washington. We
don't care how many years the American partners will repay their investments.
However, it largely depends on us how effective the route will be and what
dividends it will bring. We should not forget that the presence of the American
factor on the route may raise doubts among some of our partners, and in this
case, those who expect to make money on TRIPP transit will have to settle for
transportation to Nakhchivan and back. For doubting partners, Azerbaijan has
the northern branch of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (the
Middle Corridor) through Georgia. But by using all his diplomatic skills, he can
help eliminate doubts. Although there are strange statements from the American
side regarding plans to organize transit along the Middle Corridor bypassing
China, those who are talking about this are clearly not familiar with
geography. And not only with geography.
Not everyone in Armenia welcomes TRIPP. The US connection
has shortened the languages somewhat, but Armenian revanchists, experts and
other demagogues do not tire of talking about the risks of the project. There
is the threat of turning into a gray zone under foreign control in the event of
"Azerbaijani aggression", there are some environmental risks, and
there is some damage to political interests. Lots of stuff. To Nikol
Pashinyan's credit, he ignores these obstacles.
Azerbaijan stands for cooperation, for the prosperity of the
region, and for the common interests of its close neighbors. Yerevan's task
today is to try to make TRIPP a unifying rather than a separating route.
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