By Doctor Sana Imran

The value of the Southern Caucasian region in Central Asia cannot be overemphasised. Nestled in the historical legacy of the former Russian, Persian, and Ottoman Empires, this geographical expanse is rich with a profound sense of antiquity and modernity. The recently settled issue of Garabagh, which used to linger as a festering wound, has now been resolved due to valiant actions by brave Azerbaijani troops. The illegal occupation of Azerbaijani lands by Armenia for nearly three decades now is a blatant disregard for the four UN resolutions passed in favour of Azerbaijan. For the liberation of Azeri lands, Turkey and Pakistan afford unconditional and guaranteed support to Azerbaijan. Armenia, on the other hand, seeks support from Russia and Iran.

Most recently, India, an extra-territorial player, has made headlines, attempting to alter the security dynamics of a highly volatile region. Traditionally, Armenia forged low on the priorities of Indian foreign policy makers, but recent Indian exports of military hardware to Armenia manifest deeper Indian designs to partake in the long-standing conflict. New Delhi has staked out a fairly defined position by aligning itself with Yerevan. India's strategic interests in the region's security calculus have become increasingly apparent as India seeks to improve its geopolitical clout. This newfound assertiveness reflects India's aspirations to be recognised as a great power with a global reach.

New Delhi’s support for Yerevan is not only a diplomatic show of force but also has complex military strings attached to it. Multiple shipments of military equipment from India to Armenia, including Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers, anti-tank missiles, rockets, ammunition, and the recently reported Indian-developed anti-drone system (Zen), reflect the same. According to the latest reports, India is set to export the Akash Air Defence System to Armenia. The latest batch of weapons for Armenia is currently undergoing testing, with positive feedback regarding their effectiveness in countering threats, especially from Azerbaijani drones. Indian weapon systems will not only enhance Armenia's military muscle for flexing against Azerbaijan but will also compound the entangled security matrix.

The arms sales from India to Armenia have raised concerns in Azerbaijan, with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev holding France and India responsible for potential conflicts. In utter disregard for such concerns, Armenia sees India as a reliable weapons supplier. The Indian media, on the other hand, highlights a strategic geopolitical background to these arms sales, positioning India against the Azerbaijani-Turkish-Pakistani axis. With these efforts, India is trying to establish strategic partnerships beyond its traditional allies while navigating the complex security cobweb of the South Caucasus region. With an aim to expand its defence industry, India, under the policy of “Atmanirbhar Bharat” (Self – Reliant India) has focused its attention on Defence Indigenization. For exports of military equipment and weapons, Armenia presents itself as a reliable market.

Pakistan and Azerbaijan enjoy strong diplomatic relations. However, there is a need to improve economic ties. Contrarily, Islamabad has not established any diplomatic relations with Armenia due to the former 'Nagorno-Karabakh' conflict. Pakistan’s support for Azerbaijan remains closely linked to its strategic ties with Türkiye, which also serves as Baku’s primary supporter. Pakistan’s exports to Azerbaijan stood at a paltry US$25.8 million in 2022. With an aim to further enhance bilateral trade, Pakistan and Azerbaijan have decided to revive talks on the Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA). This bilateral cooperation will not only be limited to the economic domain but will foster a broad-based strategic partnership between the two brotherly states. The recently concluded visit of Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, to Azerbaijan further cements military-to-military cooperation.

The whole regional equation is not that simple. With Türkiye and Pakistan supporting Azerbaijan and Russia and Iran and India aligning with Armenia, it will not be wrong to say that blocs have gradually emerged in the simmering South Caucasus region. Pakistan-Azerbaijan-Türkiye is a time-tested reality that should not be mistaken by anyone for any misadventure. Following the 2020 Second Garabagh War, Ankara, Baku, and Islamabad have actively worked together to strengthen their trilateral relations. Similarly, in September 2021, the Azerbaijani, Turkish, and Pakistani militaries conducted a joint military exercise, named "Three Brothers—2021,” in Baku. While Russia is caught up in Ukraine, Armenia has its eyes focused on India and Iran for support. Armenia's shift towards acquiring weapons from India indicates a re-evaluation of its traditional reliance on Russian and Soviet-made military hardware. This change has also led to tensions with Russia. Similarly, it is crucial to highlight Iran's historical relations with India and Armenia as well. Iran's standpoint on Garabagh, economic interests and geo-political interests add another layer of complexity to this problem. Armenia, fostering strategic ties with New Delhi, suggests the creation of a Persian Gulf-Black Sea Corridor through Iran, either as an extension of INSTC or a new branch. The aim of the initiative could be to facilitate connections between Indian traders and regions spanning Russia and beyond up to Europe. Potential exists for a trilateral coalition involving India, Iran, and Armenia to counterbalance the axis formed by Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye.

Through leveraging its economic strength and diplomatic clout, India aspires to establish crucial alliances in the South Caucasus, positioning itself as a pivotal player. India’s military aid to Armenia may have far-reaching implications, which can escalate tensions and potentially trigger an arms race. The regional dynamics of the South Caucasus are becoming more intricate, with the stakes of many extra-regional players embedded in them. The escalating conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is being exacerbated by increasing regional complexities. Russia has expressed its readiness to facilitate a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Responsible mediation is therefore imperative; otherwise, the ongoing conflict may create an environment where extra-regional powers like India can solidify their positions and exploit the situation, potentially leading to security dilemmas and an arms race. New Delhi’s active participation in the region emphasises the necessity for vigilant monitoring and the adoption of effective countermeasures to avoid disrupting the established balance of power in the region.

Author: Doctor Sana Imran, Assistant Professor at National University of Science and Technology (NUST) Islamabad