The Zangazur Corridor issue still remains a top story on the headlines of the region's countries. The Iranian Foreign Ministry’s spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, found himself at the center of a media whirlwind after his statement on the Zangazur corridor was quickly circulated by Azerbaijani media outlets. But it wasn’t long before Armenia, caught in the crossfire, went into a panic. The response was swift: Baghaei denied discussing Zangazur, claiming, according to Iran’s ISNA Agency, that the topic never crossed his lips.

Citing the statement by the Iran MFA spokesperson, the ISNA news agency reports that the statement refers to the issue of fuel for Iranian trucks on the border with Türkiye. Now let's analyze how this "distortion" as some would proclaim happened.

Well, this all began with a report from Iran’s official news agencies about 1,000 Iranian trucks stranded at the border with Türkiye, caught in a complex web of fuel and tax disputes. Iran had stopped selling fuel to Turkish trucks, triggering a retaliatory tax on Iranian trucks entering Türkiye. Baghaei addressed the issue, mentioning a forthcoming delegation to resolve the fuel dispute—but it was his comment that would reverberate: “This is not a political issue, but a technical one.”

Despite Baghaei's clarification, the Iranian media played a different game. It was Iran’s own Etimad—a widely read but non-official platform—that first spread the story about Zangazur. Some Azerbaijani outlets, eager for details, used certain Iranian sources, unknowingly falling victim to the manipulation. Even after Baghaei’s refutation, the story remained unchanged on Iranian platforms, adding to the intrigue.

At its heart, the Zangazur corridor is more than just a link—it’s a crucial project shaping the future of Eurasia. It’s a bridge of peace, connecting Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Iran in a dance of cooperation. Yet, Iran has long resisted the idea. Why?

There are powerful reasons: first, the opening of Zangazur would ease Azerbaijan’s dependence on Iran by removing Nakhchivan from the blockade. Secondly, it would allow Russia to expand its influence in the Middle East, a region where Iran currently holds sway.

As the geopolitical map shifts, a new dynamic is emerging. Türkiye, a rising power in the Middle East, has weakened Iran’s position, especially against the backdrop of the Syrian conflict. Iran now finds itself needing to engage with Türkiye or risk losing even more of its already waning regional power.

The other concern for Iran is the potential loss of transit revenues, which was previously mentioned in one of our articles. Let's recite:

"The volume of transit goods passing through Iran has increased by 30% compared to the previous year. From March 2023 to January 2024, 14.2 million tons of cargo transited Iran, generating approximately $1 billion in revenue during these ten months. Given Iran's ongoing economic distress exacerbated by sanctions since the change of regime in 1979, this income is vital. The increasing number and scope of sanctions have severely impacted Iran's economic prospects, making transit revenue a critical lifeline. Even by checking the reports on US Department's official website, we can easily say how much the nation is deprived in terms of profitable gains. For Iran, which is experiencing such economic and political distress, earning income as a transit country is the last resort.

Additionally, Türkiye's foreign trade strategy has increasingly prioritized Central Asia. In general, the realization of the principles of the "United Turkic World" has seriously increased the development trends towards Asia in Türkiye's foreign economic policy. By the end of 2023, trade turnover between Türkiye and Kazakhstan reached a record $6.4 billion, with Uzbekistan also showing significant growth with a whopping 3 billion dollars and with a prospect of reaching 5 billion dollars in the upcoming years. Türkiye is one of the five main trading partners of the Central Asian countries, and Türkiye has become the number one exporter for Turkmenistan in recent years, surpassing China. Therefore, if there is no Zangezur Corridor, Türkiye's increased trade turnover in Central Asia will mean an opportunity for Iran to obtain excellent transit revenues, and an additional obstacle and more costs for Türkiye itself. We all know that, as Moscow is preoccupied with the conflict in Ukraine and redirecting its focus away from the South Caucasus, Tehran is eager to assert its influence in the region."

Azerbaijan, for its part, is demanding more than just access to the corridor—it’s calling for the free movement of goods, people, and vehicles between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, with no customs inspections or duties. Moreover, security guarantees must be ensured to safeguard this strategic passage. But this is not about undermining Armenia’s sovereignty. On the contrary, the Zangazur corridor benefits everyone. Armenia would gain access to Azerbaijan’s railways, boosting connectivity with Iran and Russia while opening new economic opportunities for international trade.

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev offered a pointed reflection on the issue during an interview with local television channels:

“We, as Azerbaijan, are not a source of danger for them [Armenia]. We want peace and cooperation in the South Caucasus. They should not be in the way. They should not act as a geographical barrier between Türkiye and Azerbaijan. The Zangazur corridor must and will be opened. The sooner they understand this, the better it is. Why should we have to go to Nakhchivan, an integral part of Azerbaijan, through different ways? We should have a direct connection, and this connection does not question Armenia's sovereignty. Simply put, they should fulfill the provisions of the 19 November Statement. Everything is explicitly stated there. We have been showing patience for more than four years. For more than four years, we have wanted this to be resolved through negotiations. How long will we have to wait and why should we wait?”

The Zangazur corridor isn’t just a matter of connecting Nakhchivan to the rest of Azerbaijan. It’s a gateway linking China and Central Asia to Europe via the Azerbaijan-Türkiye transport network.

Despite its longstanding support for Armenia, Iran stands to benefit from the corridor’s opening, yet its opposition persists. This is not solely due to economic interests, as the corridor offers Iran additional dividends. Instead, the true motivation appears to be Iran’s fear of Turkic unity and the growing national consciousness of Turkic people within Iran.

Given Iran’s current economic turmoil and looming energy crisis, combined with the potential for further sanctions under a new U.S. administration, Tehran may soon find itself compelled to shift its stance on the Zangazur corridor. So how long will the region wait to resolve this high-stakes geopolitical issue?