South Caucasus expert Amanda Paul: It's unlikely that Turkey will turn its back on Azerbaijan

Senior research fellow at the European Policy Center and an expert on Southern Caucasus Amanda Paul commented on a number of issues, in particular touched upon possible opening of Armenian-Turkish border and the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.

“Opening of the border will only follow the ratification of the two protocols in Turkey and Armenia.  It is still very unclear when this will happen (if it ever does) and from Ankara’s perspective continues to remain dependent on movement on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and in particular withdrawal  of Armenian forces from at least 5 of the Azerbaijani territories that they continue to occupy.  Armenia continues to say this is not an option. Given all the promises that have been made by Turkey’s leaders to Azerbaijan’s leadership it is highly unlikely that Ankara could make a u-turn at this point unless of course Azerbaijan itself could be convinced to think differently on the issue which is also highly unlikely, indeed, probably impossible," said Paul.  

Paul also pointed out that closer to the 24th of April, the date which Armenians mark as the date of “genocide”, situation in the region could be changing faster.

“Opening the border without such a development on Karabakh would make Baku – to say the least – extremely unhappy and very unpredictable. 24th of April is a very significant date for all concerned, and of course for the US, where President Obama will come under increased pressure by the armenian lobby both in and outside of Congress.  The big players – US and Russia – can continue to push and cajole all three countries but so far – since the signing of the protocols on 10 October – a stalemate has set in and in the case of Russia, at least, their approach is always open to change depending on other developments in the world.   If there were positive developments by April it would be extremely good news for the whole South Caucasus region but at this point in time the outlook does not look particularly rosy," she said.

T. Teymur