TODAY.AZ / Politics

Oqtay Sadikhzade: "A part of the Armenian society realizes that shouting "Karabakh" does not bring anything positive "

23 September 2008 [11:40] - TODAY.AZ
Day.Az interview with independent political scientist Oqtay Sadikhzade.


- Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan announced that he offered to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to invest into Nagorno Karabakh to demonstrate Azerbaijan's interest in the welfare of this region and safe life. "Perhaps, after it Armenians in Karabakh would speak for living within Azerbaijan", said Sargsyan. Do his words mean readiness for action, desire to comprise or what?

- The recent developments showed that the visit of President Abdullah Gul to Yerevan was not a single action in the framework of the "football diplomacy".

The Turkish political elite was well preparing for a new stage of talks with Armenia. I have no doubts that there were preliminary serious talks with Moscow.

Naturally, here Turkey pursues its national interests to strengthen its role of an influential player in the region and get the whole Armenian market of its goods. But Turkey's political interests coincide with the interests of Azerbaijan on a number of moments and primarily in the resolution of Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

- Does it mean that Serzh Sargsyan's words were a response to Ankara's efforts?

- This is another proof that in Armenia and in Armenian establishment there are some powers which treat the situation soberly. I am sure that Yerevan is strongly affected by Moscow as well.

- Is it because Ankara is intercepting the Kremlin's initiative in the Caucasus?

- By no means. I think Turkey and Russia are already not rivals, on the contrary, they have become a sort of "allies" in the fight for intercepting the initiative and influence on the Caucasus from the West and the United States. And now they want to pull the United States out of here to become the major players. Mutual agreements come from this.

- How do you treat the following words of the Armenian President - "Karabakh Armenians will speak against living within Azerbaijan in any referendum, which can be held in the near future"?

- His words can be easily understood and explained. They are connected with the existence of deep clashes in the Armenian society, a part of which is shouting "Karabakh", "Miatsum", "Great Armenia from sea to sea" and another part realizes that shouting "Karabakh" does not bring anything positive.

This part sees that the Karabakh clan has seized a control over Armenia, which now belongs not to Armenians but Karabakhis, while Armenians get the smallest part and there are no special prospects. Not everyone is satisfied with a dependence when one's owner calls you an outpost.

Sargsyan sees it but at the same time he is fearing and wants to take his words back when something goes wrong. He does not want to give a trump card to the Armenian opposition, which may spoil everything. Today Serzh Sargsyan has faced a strong resistance of opposition, which is aware that it is losing the initiative and only time will show how it he will be able to persuade the Armenian society about the need and usefulness of the peaceful resolution for each Armenian.

- Which arguments would be appropriate here?

- Most is held in secret but the very opening of borders will ensure the economic renewal of the whole trade sector of Armenia. Participation in the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku project is also beneficiary for Armenia, like the opening of borders, it will fully step out of isolation and start to integrate with the regional economy, regional projects and processes.

Armenia will only gain from the Caucasus initiative. The presidential administration of Serzh Sargsyan should show to the Armenian society all pluses of the conflict settlement.

- It can also take part in Nabucco.

- Armenia's energy sector, as well as other fields, are controlled by the Kremlin. In this connection, the strengthening of Turkish-Russian contacts on the diplomatic level, mutual visits to Ankara and Moscow are possible. Russia is now tolerant towards the Nagorno Karabakh conflict resolution.

What has caused this? On the background of the complete diplomatic breakaway with Georgia, where western moods will long dominate after war, Russia tends to embrace Azerbaijan and Armenia and held them under its influence. Coordinated steps of Turkey and Russia prove the helplessness of the OSCE Minsk Group, as well as the ability of these countries to accelerate the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

- Do the interests of Armenia and Turkey coincide at the moment?

- Turkey is underlining its role in the region, while Sargsyan will strengthen his positions, as he voices the things that are accepted by Levon Ter-Petrosyan, as well. I would repeat that most depends on Sargsyan's ability to persuade the Armenian society of the pluses of the resolution. To persuade, but not to impose, as opposition would make use of it.

- How should we react to Sargsyan's phrase - "if something extraordinary happens and Karabakh is returned to Azerbaijan, not a single Armenian will be left there within a short period of time"?

- He is certainly exaggerating. Azerbaijan has already stated that Armenia will receive guarantee of security, large autonomy within Azerbaijan, economic development, large investments, improvement of infrastructure, participation in regional transport and energy projects.

- Can any bigots, provocateurs or just stumble representatives of foreign special services fire at the Armenian or Azerbaijani villages following the return of Azerbaijanis to Karabakh and repeat events of 1988?

- That is why, the guarantees to the Armenian community, repeatedly spoken of by President Ilham Aliyev, should be observed on the highest level. Azerbaijani army and law enforcement bodies have all opportunities for elimination of a threat of provocation. Therefore, I am against deployment of any peacekeeping forces in Karabakh.

The recent events in Georgia showed that if Azerbaijan starts to lean towards NATO, these peacekeeping forces will repeat the story with Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Nagorno Karabakh.

/Day.Az/


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