Baku’s peace sign to Yerevan: Which direction will negotiations evolve? [COMMENTARY]

By Elnur Enveroglu

The process of peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia has once again been slowed down due to the volatile nature and inadequate behaviour of Armenia. The refusal of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to attend the meeting organised between Azerbaijan and Armenia at the initiative of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer within the framework of the 4th European Political Community summit held last time in Oxford, United Kingdom, is now widely discussed in the media.

Although many world experts have commented that Armenia-Azerbaijan rapprochement seems uncertain this year, official Baku, the initiator of peace, does not want to agree with these opinions. On the contrary, in response to the Armenian Prime Minister's rejection of the peace platform offered by Great Britain, Azerbaijan took another step towards peace.

By inviting Armenia to the COP29 event, Azerbaijan once again demonstrated its peace-making and goodwill intentions. In the absence of diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev’s sending an invitation letter to Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan is a manifestation of Azerbaijan’s inclusive approach to Armenia. However, it is questionable whether or not Baku's peace hand will be received by Yerevan.

Commenting on the issue, Azerbaijani political expert Metin Mammadli said in his comment to Azernews that the eccentric behaviour of Armenia does not allow making accurate predictions about the future.

"Undoubtedly, Azerbaijan's invitation to Armenia to the COP29 event stems from the country's peaceful intentions. However, there are a number of questions about how Armenia will react to this proposal. Because the government of Armenia, whether it is the Minister of Foreign Affairs or the Prime Minister, has always been distinct with its contradictory views. From this point of view, it is somewhat difficult to make an accurate prediction that Armenia will respond positively or negatively to Azerbaijan's invitation."

Regarding Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's refusal to meet at the 4th European Political Community summit held in Oxford, the expert said: "Nikol Pashinyan's refusal to meet at the initiative of Great Britain showed the contradictory behaviour of the Armenian Prime Minister. The negative or positive development of the fragile peace relationship between the two countries depends on the behaviour of the Armenian leadership."

Metin Mammadli associated such a step by the Prime Minister of Armenia with his unstable character. The expert said that Pashinyan hesitates to make decisions, and for this very reason, the possibility of relations between the two countries being fully normalised by COP29 seems low.

On the other hand, the expert emphasised that the current tense processes within Armenia can be an example of this. Mammadli added that the possibility of the negotiations taking place in a short time seems to be very low regarding both the internal situation in Armenia and external influences on Pashinyan.