Today.Az » World news » Ariel Cohen: Turkey's relations with NATO and its Western identity is under threat
26 November 2010 [12:37] - Today.Az
Turkish and U.S. interests in the Balkans, Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Middle East, and the Persian Gulf have recently diverged, Heritage Foundation's leading expert on Eurasia and Trend Expert Council member Ariel Cohen said.
"The current trends indicate Turkey's ties to the NATO alliance, its Western-oriented identity, and its long-term strategic reliability are all at risk," Cohen said at a conference on "Shifting Turkish Foreign Policy: A Challenge for the Transatlantic Alliance?" this week.
For decades, Turkey and the United States cooperated in huge space including the Mediterranean, the Balkans, the Persian Gulf, Central Asia, he said. However, Turkish and U.S. interests with regards to Iran, Russia, the Caucasus and the Middle East have recently diverged, Cohen said.
"Turkey defied its traditional allies, including the United States, the Europeans and Israel, by voting against the fourth round of the U.N. sanctions against Iran. On Sept.12, 2010, Turkey took another important political step away from its secular nature. The referendum increased the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) control of the judiciary, weakened separation of powers and checks and balances, and further defanged the army. The referendum delivered a blow to the Turkish military and the judicial system - which were the principal checks and balances of the secular nature of the Turkish Republic established by Ataturk until recently," Cohen said speaking at the conference.
Today, internal shifts in Ankara are underpinning the profound changes in foreign policy, Cohen said. Ankara affects U.S. vital interests in the region as it plays a key geopolitical role in Iraq, Iran, the Caucasus/Black Sea and the Balkans.
"By distancing itself from Europe and the United States and reaching out to Russia and the Muslim world, Turkey is pursuing its aspiration to become an independent pole in a multipolar world. The growing "neo-Ottoman" character of Ankara's foreign policy and Islamist cultural and ideological roots also play a role in this trend. Turkey lays claim to leadership in the Muslim world and the Middle East," he said.
Under the AKP, Turkey has sought better ties with its Muslim Arab and Iranian neighbors and with other Muslim countries, often at the expense of the United States, Israel, and its other Western allies.
Turkey has long been a key NATO partner and strategic ally of Europe and the United States, but recent trends have caused legitimate concerns about Turkey's commitment to NATO's interests among policy makers and experts, Cohen added.
"The United States, Turkey, NATO, and the EU have shared regional interests, including the protection from the growing missile and nuclear capabilities of Iran, the stability of the Caucasus, energy security, and increasing economic ties. As a NATO member and a key U.S. partner, Ankara should not undermine solid regional allies such as Israel," Cohen said.
However, the two basic conditions that Ankara has placed before it will consider hosting NATO missile defenses caused serious concern. One of the conditions of Turkey's consent on missile defenses has been a requirement that all references to Iran as a threat or a list of threats must be eliminated. Cohen said all these cause serious concerns with regards to Turkey's geopolitical orientation and that the country may depart from the Alliance in the medium- or long-term.
The Turkish authorities also insist on building NATO, but not the U.S. missile defense system. Recently, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has upped the ante, stating that Turkey should have command of the system. This condition was rejected as contrary to the practice and policy of NATO.
He said Russia and Turkey have substantially increased their trading, military, and diplomatic relationships over the last several years that diversify the geopolitical portfolio of Ankara.
"There has also been cooperation between Turkish and Russian militaries. This is a new development, given that Turkey's military traditionally supplies itself through NATO countries. However, today Turkey is considering other options. In 2010, Russia discussed the sale of Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles with the Turks, and China replaced the United States to "Anatolian Eagle" in traditional air maneuvers," Cohen said.
But the most significant element of the Russian-Turkish relationship, is the alleged removal of Russia from the critical threats sector of Turkey's "RED BOOK", a foreign policy document that discusses Turkey's most substantial threats from abroad. Russia had been considered a Turkish critical threat for decades.
Iran, Iraq, Armenia, Bulgaria and Greece also have been removed from the list, but added Israel.
"Turkey is also developing closer ties with Iran, which is especially strange, since Turkey is a former bastion of Euro-American security," Cohen said.
Ankara, he said, clearly disagrees with Washington on the main issue of relations with Iran - its nuclear program.
The Turkish leaders made public statements rejecting the notion that Iran was developing a nuclear program for anything but civilian use. Ankara also wanted to host the next round of nuclear talks between Iran and Western countries in the 5 +1 format.
"Iran's motivation for such a move is clear. The Islamic Republic's leadership believes that Turkey will promote Iranian nuclear interests," Cohen said.
The simultaneous departure from the secular values of the Turkish Republic, the growth of Islamic solidarity and the ongoing rift with NATO and the United States contribute to the growth of pessimism in the relations of Ankara in Washington, he said.
"The Obama Administration and the U.S. Congress should clarify to the Turkish counterparts what Turkey could gain by staying in NATO, and that what it might lose, if it leaves the Euro-Atlantic orbit," Cohen said.
/Trend/
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