By Alimat Aliyeva

German scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute have identified a likely explanation for the rapid rise in global average temperatures in recent years. The process is linked to a decrease in the planet's reflectivity, known as albedo, Azernews reports.

In 2023, experts recorded an increase in global temperatures of nearly 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Climatologists have taken into account both anthropogenic and natural factors, including volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomenon. However, it was found that about 0.2°C of the total warming remains unexplained.

To address this gap, the climate modeling team examined NASA satellite data more closely, as well as its own observations, combining these with a complex weather forecasting model.

The scientists focused on the record-low planetary albedo observed in 2023. Planetary albedo refers to the percentage of incoming solar radiation that is reflected back into space after interacting with the Earth's atmosphere and surface.

Since the 1970s, Earth's albedo has been declining, partly due to a reduction in Arctic snow and sea ice, which also means fewer white surfaces to reflect sunlight. Since 2016, this decline has been further exacerbated by the reduction of sea ice in Antarctica.

Further modeling revealed that without the decrease in albedo, the Earth would be about 0.23°C cooler.

The researchers suggest that the decline in albedo is linked to a reduction in the number of low clouds. This may be related to changes in emissions from burning fossil fuels, as these emissions help to form cloud cover at lower altitudes. The reduction in such emissions, particularly from regions like China and Europe, could therefore be contributing to the decline in cloud formation and, consequently, the Earth's reflectivity.

This research highlights the complex interplay of natural and anthropogenic factors in driving global warming. While emissions from fossil fuels continue to play a major role, changes in cloud cover and albedo provide a critical piece of the puzzle in understanding how Earth’s climate system is evolving.