Today.Az » Politics » Arif Yunusov: "Serzh Sargsyan obviously feels not at ease in an attempt to become closer to Russia and the West and please all of them"
04 July 2008 [15:08] - Today.Az
Day.Az interview with famous conflict expert Arif Yunusov.
- How do you assess the current sociopolitical situation in Armenia?
- It is difficult to specify situation in Armenia in brief, because the events there develop by a script differing from ours or Georgia's. Parallels can be formally drawn with the 2003 events and I can say that the same occurred in Armenia in spring.
At the same time, the situation is even more complicated. Thus, on the other hand, the society demonstrated strong resentment with the ruling regime. The fact that regime is not local but originates from Karabakh even added negative. In the result, people were waiting for a charismatic and wise opposition leader to reverse the situation in Armenia.
Levon Ter-Petrosyan has become such a leader, through his second appearance on the political stage astonished most people greatly, for Armenia thought he will never return as a politician again. The statements that the Armenian people will not forgive the terror, suffered by the people, especially Yerevan residents in the ealy 1990s, have been repeatedly made before. But it all sank into oblivion. The most important thing were the organizational and declamatory skills of the first President.
But it is not enough to have a leader and intention of the society. For such small countries, as ours, reaction of the leading geopolitical players is crucial. But here everything is different. In West's opinion Armenian opposition was untimely in raising the combat, as now Russia's position is more important for the West and today it is not profitable for the West to argue with Russia for Armenia. This is not Georgia, where the majority of population is anti-Russian. It is unclear how can it affect the West in Armenia. Russia's positions are strong enough here.
In the result, opposition failed to complete its duty. Russia did not believe to Ter-Petrosyan urgently arriving in Moscow, while the West has taken the wait-and see stance, while Armenian society was striken with pessimistic spirits. Today, these very feelings-disappointment and pessimism are defining for understanding the situation in Armenia.
At the same time, it can not be said that Serzh Sargsyan has managed to consolidate his positions. He still feels not at ease while attempting to get closer to the strongest countries - Russia and the West and wants to please all of them.
On the other hand, Levon Ter-Petrosyan and his supporters have a rich political experience, they were caught in such situations and managed to find a way our. Thus, there has been a certain pause in the political situation in Armenia, which will probably last until spring of the next year, when situation in Armenia may deteriorate again under the influence of talks on Karabakh and PACE resolution, and perhaps on other reasons. But there can hardly be anything serious in Armenia before it.
- How would you comment on the statement of first Armenian president Levon Ter-Petrosyan who said that adoption of resolution 1620 at PACE summer session regarding Armenia is illogical and "evidences the unscrupulousness of this organization and that the West has created virtual Armenia for itself and now tries to prove us that the country where we live is wonderful"?
- Levon Ter-Petrosyan statement proves strong disappointment with the West's position. We have sustained this repeatedly in Azerbaijan, while Armenians have faced this for the first time, as opposition hoped for the principal position of the West in the face of the OSCE and PACE.
But it did not occur, which has become a kind of a cold shower for Armenian opposition. But belief in West has been preserved, otherwise what should they do? Russia's position in the elections in any country in the post-Soviet area is primordially known, there is nothing unclear there. There is no Islam factor in Armenia as well. Therefore, Armenian opposition's choise is too restricted. It is too discontented with the position of the West, if exactly, western organizations, it will periodically criticize them, but at the same time not lose hope for their assistance.
- What is a difference between Azerbaijani and Armenian opposition?
- The differences are great and they are caused by many factors, including actions of the authorities, position of the society and reaction of geopolitical actors. There is a great difference everywhere.
For example, energy factor plays important role for the West in Azerbaijan. Therefore, the West shows passive reaction to the actions of the authorities, formally in order not to spoil their image completely. As is said, even PACE resolutions smell of oil in Azerbaijan, which will last until the time when oil reserve are exhausted. Our authorities are aware of it, and act fearlessly as they understand that nothing threatens to them in real. Therefore they can use force and money is enough to buy opposition when necessary. Besides, our society is also pessimistic.
The situation is quite different in Armenia and the society is not so pessimistic there and the West thinks not about the reserves in the country, therefore, at some stage it will impose pressure on Armenian authorities and assist to opposition. The latter just hurried, as our compatriots in South Azerbaijan did in May of 2006.
At the same time, our opposition has to learn from Armenian's. First of all, Armenian opposition has a definite strategy, which it executes consistently enough or at least tries to implement. And tactically it is more creative. Let's recall the story with the spread of DVD and cassettes from Ter-Petrosyan's meeting among the population. Know-How is on the high level. It also invests something and tries to act unexpectedly.
- Nevertheless, despite expectations of most experts, June 20 meeting of the Armenian opposition involves masses. How did Armenian opposition manage to attain such a success, as conduction of mass protest action in the center of Yerevan in conditions of strong pressure by Armenian authorities?
- Everything is relative. The pressure of Armenian authorities on opposition is in fact not so strong, especially in comparison with us. On March 1 the authorities managed to take control of the situation only with use of force and deploying army in the streets. Now, when the pressure of the authorities has weakened, the opposition has a chance to conduct its activity. The question is how to atract masses? Ter-Petrosyan managed to relieve a part of the society from apathy and distrust in their powers. But only a part of the society. Another part, especially beyond the capital city, is still sleepy and fearing its authorities. Thus, the meetings in Yerevan are only attended by those who joined them in February-March.
- In this case, what can we expect from the meeting of Armenian opposition, scheduled for July 4?
- This meeting will not be so decisive for Armenia. The past script will repeat. Another moment is important here: Armenian opposition, led by Ter-Petrosyan always invents and undertakes something, permanently holding the authorities under tension, which is important.
This means that the working Armenian regime will always be under pressure, Even summer vocations are not for them, through traditionally political activity is declining in this period, while in Armenia we see different developments, which is a result of opposition's actions.
/Day.Az/
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