The topic of regional communications is becoming more and more overgrown with "meat". Curious nuances and unexpected twists appear in it, new players join it and old players become active. The struggle for communications in the South Caucasus is reaching a new level, and thanks to Baku's pragmatism and initiatives, processes are brewing in the region that simply could not have happened before. It would not be an exaggeration to say that Azerbaijan manages, coordinates and corrects all these changes.

Armenia is especially feeling this. After losing the war, embarking on the path of peace and starting to think for herself, she saw a lot of opportunities around her. This includes the ability to make decisions, which she was deprived of all the years of her imaginary independence.

The statements made by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan the other day were perhaps the most unexpected for many in the context of the discussion of communications in the South Caucasus. For the first time at such a high level, the idea of a possible change of the concessionaire for the management of the Armenian railways was raised. Pashinyan talked about the possibility of the South Caucasus Railway (SCR, a subsidiary of Russian Railways) transferring the rights to concessionary management of the Armenian railway to a third party friendly to both Yerevan and Moscow. The SCR has been managing the railways of Armenia since 2008, and the concession agreement is designed for thirty years, that is, until 2038.

Formally, the issue is as follows: the restoration of two short sections - 1.6 km and 12.4 km - to connect the Armenian network with the railways of Azerbaijan (in the Yeraskh region) and Turkiye (Akhurik). Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk has already declared his readiness for substantive negotiations. However, the Armenian Prime minister objected that there was no need for negotiations on such a small amount of work. Moreover, he directly linked the management of Russian Railways to Armenia's loss of competitive advantages in regional communications. According to him, within the framework of the TRIPP project ("Trump's Route for International Peace and Prosperity") A number of countries are not ready to invest in routes through Armenia precisely because the railway is under Russian control. Thus, the technical issue has turned into a political one.

The SCR factor is undoubtedly a deterrent for European investors. Today, the situation in the South Caucasus is such that Europe would probably be ready to invest in Armenia's railway infrastructure, which it did not show interest in during the conflict years. And it wasn't just because of Russia that she didn't show it. The Armenian railways were unattended until 2008. No one wanted to invest in them, because Armenia was a regional dead end, and investments would have been wasted. Investments are good when the country is suitable for international transportation. Domestic transportation in Armenia has never been profitable, so the SCR did not try very hard. The Russian concessionaire refused to build a railway to the border with Iran during the conflict. The management of Russian Railways then openly called this project unpromising. Why would Russia spend almost $4 billion on a 305-kilometer railway with 60 tunnels and 84 bridges, if Russia itself could not use this route due to the isolation of Armenia and the shutdown of the Abkhazian railway? When Serzh Sargsyan announced the project in 2008, he did not think about such "trifles" as economic necessity.

Apart from the stillborn project of the road to Iran, Armenia objectively had reason to be dissatisfied with the Southern Railway. After Nikol Pashinyan came to power in 2018, a case was opened against the daughter of Russian Railways. According to publications in the Armenian media, the Russian company did not fulfill its obligations. For example, in 2010, the SCR promised to build a 32-kilometer Vanadzor-Violet branch line, which would shorten the route from Yerevan to Tbilisi and further to the Black Sea ports by 112 km, but did not fulfill the promise.

Why this project never came to fruition is not indicated anywhere. Most likely, this had geopolitical reasons. It was not beneficial for Russia that its outpost had access to the wider world, bypassing it. Railways have always served as the basis for international transit. Armenia was limited in these opportunities due to the occupation of its neighbor's territories and the resulting regional isolation.

The concessionaire also left the Yerevan-Zvartnots Airport expressway project unfulfilled.

Pashinyan is right to point out that there is no need for negotiations between Yerevan and the Southern Railway on such minor sections. As a concessionaire, the Russian company is obliged to invest in the repair of these roads, and it is unclear why negotiations are dragging on, although the issue could have been resolved back in December, when Pashinyan raised it at a meeting with Putin. Apparently, there is a TRIPP factor here. Russia stubbornly wants to join the project, although neither Armenia nor the United States wants to see it as a partner. Russia had five years to take advantage of the end of the conflict and try to infiltrate the Middle Corridor through the NAR road through Armenia. But she was in no hurry to do so, expecting some special dividends. If she had more pragmatism and common sense, the Armenians would now be planning the road through Meghri not with the Americans, but with the Russians.

The United States will no longer leave the region, so Moscow urgently needs to find a place for itself in the new scenario, so as not to be completely late with its presence. In the current situation, Russia's control over Armenia's strategic infrastructure objectively limits Yerevan's maneuverability. And if international investors avoid the country because of this factor, it means that the management issue will have to be reviewed.

While Russia is offering Armenia negotiations on 1.5 kilometers of railway track, the European Union is already discussing with Azerbaijan the inclusion of the Zangezur corridor in the pan-European transport network TEN-T (Trans-European Transport Networks). European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said at a meeting with President Ilham Aliyev in Davos that the European Union is ready to support Azerbaijan in rebuilding the railway in NAR.  The EU will invest in the modernization of the autonomy's railways. The European Union and Azerbaijan, together with the European Investment Bank, have agreed to start work on the preparation of a feasibility study for a 194-kilometer-long road.

And Armenia keeps discussing and discussing.

According to Pashinyan, Russia could sell its rights to manage the concession to a country friendly to both Moscow and Yerevan. For example, Kazakhstan, the UAE or Qatar. It seems that such a proposal came as a complete surprise to Moscow.

It is noteworthy that at the same time Nikol Pashinyan's decisive statements were made by the Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructures of Armenia, David Khudatyan. He told reporters that the Armenian government continues to work with Russian partners. In particular, to involve them in work on the Yeraskh to the Azerbaijani border and Akhurik to the Turkish border. We have an understanding with the Russian side regarding these two sites, and we can come to a definite agreement, the minister said cheerfully. Noting at the same time that if anything, Armenia can build these roads on its own. That is, in Russia, the world did not converge in a wedge.

The opposition has already accused Pashinyan of "putting pressure on Moscow." Proponents of this theory argue that if Moscow does not quickly restore the border areas, Turkiye and Azerbaijan will continue to build an alternative line bypassing Armenia. It is not very clear which line we are talking about. The fact is that the road from Baku to Turkiye through Georgia exists and has been involved for a long time. If we are talking about the line that Turkiye is currently leading to Nakhchivan, then this is part of the Zangezur corridor, which will pass through Armenia. So this argument of the opposition can be immediately dismissed.

The pro-Russian opposition is also trying to look for other subtexts in Pashinyan's actions. For example, former Prime Minister Khosrov Harutyunyan claims that Pashinyan, in the interests of the United States, is betting on the southern route through Meghri (TRIPP), while there is an alternative road - Gazakh-Ijevan-Dilijan-Hrazdan-Yerevan-Gyumri, which, after reconstruction, could become the shortest route between Azerbaijan and Turkiye. And the cost of eliminating the consequences of the landslide at Haghartsin is estimated at about $ 17 million, which is several times less than the cost of a 43-kilometer road in Syunik.

Harutyunyan is clearly not aware of the difference between the length of these two roads. Azerbaijan is the beneficiary of the road through Meghri, and its 43 kilometers through Meghri suit much more than several hundred kilometers of travel through the territory of a neighboring country. Plus, the unsuitability of the road indicated by the former prime minister for cargo transportation. And especially the very section between Hrazdan and Ijevan, which was considered unsuitable for restoration even during the time of the former leadership of Armenia.

The Armenian pro-Russian oppositionist is not in the topic at all. According to Armenian media, the restoration of the Hrazdan-Dilijan-Ijevan railway requires an investment of 500 million dollars. There are problems not only in one landslide area. In contrast, the restoration of the road through Meghri will cost 226 million. But the most important thing is that the Hrazdan-Dilijan-Ijevan road passes through an area with increased landslide risk. In 2010, the canvas was destroyed near the village of Aghartsin. They decided not to restore it. The Pambak tunnel has been mothballed. Although this area is very dangerous in terms of landslides, the terrain of Armenia left no choice, so the road was built in Soviet times along this route.

The Armenian opposition expects that if it comes to power, it will curtail the project through Meghri and begin pushing this particular road from the border with Turkiye to Gazakh. And she doesn't realize that before she implements her grandiose projects, she will still have to ask Baku's opinion. Whatever the route, it will be tied to Azerbaijan one way or another. It's only the mad political scientist Poghosyan who believes that Armenia can change its geography and trade with the whole world, bypassing Azerbaijan and Turkiye, by taking over the entire regional transit in some unthinkable way.

Ultimately, the story of Russian Railways is not so much a question of transport connectivity as a question of Armenia's sovereignty. Russia and all its companies and structures operating in this country have become a symbol of Armenia's lack of freedom. And now Pashinyan wants to show his former ally that his country has grown up to independent decisions.