Recent days have seen increasing attention on the special care the US is giving to Armenia. The presence of a US representative in the Armenian army, US-Armenia military exercises, and the arrival of US military aircraft at Armenia's Zvartnots Airport following the departure of Russian border guards raise interest. Russia, however, remains silent about Armenia's growing proximity to the US after defending it for years.
What Awaits the South Caucasus?
Commenting on the issue for Azernews, military journalist Sakhavat Mammad said that Armenia had been operating under Russian directives for many years.
"Previously, the state of Armenia was considered a vassal of Russia. It was dependent on Russia politically, economically, and militarily, and even structured its activities based on instructions from Russia," he said.
Mammad highlighted the political changes in Armenia following Nikol Pashinyan's rise to power.
"Since Pashinyan came to power, there has been a noticeable shift towards the West in Armenia. This was followed by the 44-day war. During this time, Armenia was expecting special support from Russia. When Russian soldiers did not defend the Armenians, Yerevan began to take steps to distance itself from Russia. Politically, Armenia has almost completely severed ties with Russia. It is also nearly separated militarily. Only in economic terms does Armenia still depend on Russia," he stated.
The expert drew attention to Armenia's growing ties with the West. He said that Armenia wants to upgrade its army with France's support. However, according to the journalist, the US seems dominant.
"But I believe this was not just France but specifically the US. France is just more prominent. The modernization and formation of the Armenian army are being carried out almost jointly by the US and France. The issue of removing Russian border guards from Zvartnots Airport has been on the agenda for a long time. Russia had stated that they would leave the area when the contract expired. The departure of Russian forces from this area naturally means that the US is filling the void left by Russia," he said.
Sakhavat Mammad added that Moscow is currently only monitoring the situation given Moscow's lack of reaction to the processes.
"Russia is not actually silent about the actions of the US and Armenia. Moscow is just preoccupied with many directions. The Russia-Ukraine war continues, but processes in the Middle East are also capturing Russia's attention as it is actively involved there. Even if it is not visible, we know that, for example, Russia is reported to be the party supplying missiles to the Houthis. It is clear that Russian intelligence services have played a significant role in initiating and continuing these processes," he noted.
The expert also explained the importance of Azerbaijan's presence in the region.
"Conversely, Azerbaijan's presence in the region compels Russia to behave somewhat cautiously. There is no peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, meaning that problems between the two countries continue. Therefore, Russia is somewhat restrained in this direction. However, this does not mean that Russia will always behave this way and that this process will continue indefinitely," he said.
The military expert stated that Armenia has shifted from Russian patronage to the protection of other countries.
"American troops are being stationed in Zangazur, with exercises and other activities taking place. But it should be noted that a Russian military base still exists in Armenia. It is expected that soon there will be protests and actions demanding the removal of the Russian military base from Armenia. However, nothing has changed. Armenia remains a vassal state, only now it is a vassal of the US and France rather than Russia," he concluded.
The expert also made some predictions about the potential threats posed by external elements in the region.
"The strengthening of the US and France in the region will create serious problems in the South Caucasus. The arming of Armenia and the gathering of foreign elements in the South Caucasus will not go unnoticed by regional states. It seems they want to stir up processes in the region and are doing so through Armenia.
Like the rest of the world, the South Caucasus is in a state of preparation for war. On the one hand, Iran and Israel are preparing for war, on the other hand, Armenia is arming itself, meaning the region is undergoing rapid militarization and is turning into a militarized zone. All of this is leading towards a new war.
If no agreements are reached, the region could fall into turmoil again, and the likelihood of clashes is extremely high."
