The long-standing Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict in the South Caucasus took a completely different direction in the 2020s, bringing new developments to the region. In 2020, the Azerbaijani army launched a counter-offensive operation against Armenian provocations and liberated Garabagh in just 44 days. In September 2023, a one-day local anti-terror operation neutralised separatist Armenian forces in the region.
These events attracted the attention of other powerful countries to the South Caucasus. The Garabagh conflict, once thought to have no resolution, is no longer considered a "problem." The ongoing peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia, particularly the meeting of the foreign ministers of the two countries in Almaty in May, indicate that a new era might begin in the South Caucasus after peace.
The Baku-Yerevan relations have changed the balance not only between the two countries but also among all countries interested in the Caspian region. Armenia, which had cold relations with Turkiye due to the conflict, informed Ankara about recognising Palestine as a state before notifying its old ally, Iran. Thus, a new phase in inter-country relations began in the region. Russia, which had always supported Armenia, chose to remain impartial during the Garabagh conflict and did not back Yerevan. Official Yerevan voiced its protest in Moscow by refusing to participate in CSTO meetings.
Armenia's leadership, despite feeling threatened in terms of security, managed to attract the attention of the European Union and the United States. The Western alliance, which aims to squeeze Russia in various regions and reduce its sphere of influence, began to use the tension in Armenia-Russia relations to its advantage, leading to the presence of Western forces in the South Caucasus. The EU's monitoring mission on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border can be considered the beginning of this plan.
It's worth noting that during the activity of this mission, which involved more than 200 members, the Armenian army repeatedly violated the ceasefire and occasionally provoked Azerbaijan, trying to incite a reaction. However, the representatives of the monitoring mission did not record these incidents, leading to Azerbaijan being portrayed as an aggressive state. During the presidential elections in Azerbaijan in February this year, the Azerbaijani leadership was criticised for "undermining democracy," and claims were made that Armenians voluntarily leaving Azerbaijani territories were subjected to ethnic cleansing. This proved that these forces would never operate within the framework of justice in the region.
Recently, the balance of power among the presidential candidates dominating the US agenda has prompted Washington to strengthen its relations with Armenia. The Biden administration, in its attempt to squeeze Russia in the region, has set out to create problems before leaving office. This is because the most supported presidential candidate is Donald Trump. The core of Trump's unusual policy is to strengthen the US economy and relations, which increases the likelihood that his return to power could normalise relations with Russia.
It seems that the Biden administration, faced with these facts, is making a final move by sending a message of support to the Armenian army. The news that a US military representative will operate in the Armenian Ministry of Defence is current. US Deputy Secretary of State Uzra Zeya described this step as a strategic phase in US-Armenia relations.
In a comment for Azernews on the issue, military expert Azad Isazade stated that the US aims to extricate Armenia from Russian influence.
“Undoubtedly, Washington's primary goal is to remove Yerevan from Moscow's influence. It is already clear that US security agencies have been operating in Armenia for a long time and ensuring Pashinyan's security," he noted.
The expert mentioned that the US wants to show the international community that Russia will strike Armenia through Azerbaijan.
“The US intends to create a new trend. By drawing the world's attention to the region, it hints that any action Russia takes against Armenia will be done through Azerbaijan. The reality, however, is that Azerbaijan currently has no intention of taking any military action against Armenia,” Isazade said.
The expert recalled that Azerbaijan has only worked and will continue to work to restore its sovereignty.
“Azerbaijan's main goal is to ensure its security and restore its sovereignty. Official Baku is currently focusing on reconstruction efforts in Garabagh and considers the country's development its primary objective.”
Interestingly, Washington, which lost its mediation rights last November and apologised to the Azerbaijani leadership for James O'Brien's threatening statements, wanted to resume its mediation activities. The meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia during the NATO summit was an indication of this desire.
Washington's renewed special interest in Armenia could contribute to Russia's plans but will undoubtedly strain Azerbaijan-US relations again. The 907th amendment to the "Freedom Support Act" adopted in 1992 at the initiative of the Armenian lobby, shows that the US can never act within the principles of justice. This amendment vetoed direct state aid from the US to Azerbaijan. Because, with this amendment, Washington provided additional support to the occupying Armenia, which brutally killed tens of thousands of Azerbaijanis and destroyed its environment, cities, and villages.
Now, Biden's administration's attempt to showcase its last power against Russia and remind the region of its presence will not prevent Joe Biden from leaving the presidency, nor will it pose any threat to the region. With this move, the US simply reminds everyone of its decades-long hypocritical and unjust policies.
