Today.Az » Politics » Expert says ‘Armenia cannot be regarded as friend of the U.S just because of strong lobby’
07 November 2012 [10:55] - Today.Az
Today.Az interviews Jason Katz, principal of the Tool Shed Group, a US-based consultancy that advises foreign governments.
- What do you think , how will the results of the presidential elections affect the American foreign policy?
In terms of Russia, U.S. President Obama and his policies have already been made clear, particularly in his open microphone gaff with Dmitry Medvedev of Russia. He clearly plans to give the Russian Federation much more leeway if he is reelected. This, most likely, means much more power for Russia in international affairs and a further subjugation of the U.S. in this realm.
Should Mitt Romney be elected, I believe that he would take a much harder line with regard to Russia. This would be in an attempt to stem the tide of neo-Russian imperialism and its challenges to successful U.S. Western foreign policy.
Iran is a more complicated issue. To put it lightly and simply, under a renewed Obama Administration, Iran WILL achieve its goal of a nuclear weapon..with continued help of the Russians, North Koreans and others. It will also start a shockingly dangerous arms race in the Middle East. This is not to forget Israel’s reaction. They will bomb Iran. The last thing the world needs is nuclear material potentially in the hands of Islamists…think the “Arab Spring.”
- Should we expect that the U.S. foreign policy will be more active in the South Caucasus following the elections?
The South Caucasus is clearly not monolithic. We have Azerbaijan and Georgia who are both long-term and steadfast allies of the U.S., Israel and the West, in general, In stark contrast, we have Armenia who is allied with Russia, Iran and other world actors that, shall we say are not friends? After all, Armenia was responsible for transferring Iranian arms to Iraq that resulted in the murder of American servicemen. Because Armenia has a robust lobby in the U.S….is it a friend of the U.S., I think not.
The Obama Administration has used this region as a transport point for operations in Afghanistan and paid little attention to else. In fact the President had to make a short lived recess appointment of the most qualified and preeminent ambassadors to Azerbaijan, Matt Bryza. Due to the Armenian lobby, he was not reconfirmed by the president’s own party…go figure.
- During the current election campaign, the candidates did not give any promises to the Armenian community. How can you explain that?
Said in a just a few words, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia are just too important. Congress, on the other hand, pays attention to its small constituencies that contribute copious dollars and influence. I have said for years that Congress has lost sight of their dual role, that of representing their constituencies and representing the greater good of the nation. Such has been politics in the U.S. for several decades.
-During her last visit to the South Caucasus this summer, Secretary of the State Hilary Clinton promised that the US will be more active in the Karabakh settlement. Does the US really have to propose something to Baku and Yerevan?
Do I have real hope that this will happen, no. Should it, yes. And, yes, the U.S. should propose some real solutions.
/Today.Az/
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