Today.Az » Business » Inglab Ahmedov: "Economic future of Azerbaijan seems obscure to me"
26 July 2008 [11:59] - Today.Az
Day.Az interview with famous economist Inglab Ahmedov.
- The IMF forecast, which says that economic recession will hit Azerbaijan beginning from 2012, has been released recently. How would you comment on it?
- First of all, the IMF forecast comes a bit late. It has been considered so far that the peak of oil production in Azerbaijan will fall on 2011 and will be followed by strong decline, which will have a negative influence on the overall economic growth rates, as today the oil sector GDP makes 50%.
But times are changing. Forecasts are also changing. Fortunately for us, they become more positive. New forecasts have been released several months before, according to which the country may reckon on production of at least 1 mln barrels of oil per day until 2025 mostly owing to new opportunities both of Azeri-Churag-Guneshli and other units. I would like to note that these are date of influential foreign organizations, nearly coinciding with the recent data of the government.
I would remind that today the level of daily production in ACG is exceeding a bit the volume of 800,000 barrels and considering local production it does not reach 1 mln barrels. At the same time, this data does not include gas extraction and reserves of the questioned fields.
If we take into account the transit potential of the country, hydrocarbons will be sufficient at least for our and your generation.Thus, IMF, like other international organizations will have to make corrections in their forecasts regarding Azerbaijan.
- Does it mean that Azerbaijan's future is expected to be great and there is nothing to worry about?
- Well, here I can not say any good things to you. I have no doubts that the country is doomed to low but stable economic growth in the near future. But sometimes, it is difficult to predict where stability ends and stagnation starts. Thus, stable growth does not mean happy future for us.
Moreover, on the background of the recent discrepancies, not only in economy but only in the society, the future economic development of the country seems obscure to me. Economy should not base only on such exhausting and risky sector as oil. It is an axiom.
Why does the country demonstrate such a careless attitude to entrepreneurial development? Does the government assess duly the spirit of entrepreneurs, many of whom transfer their capital abroad, being disappointed with the investment future of the country.
Is it aware of the fact that with such an attitude towards the agrarian sector, we are becoming a nett importer on almost all positions of this strategically important sector? Does it understand that we are lagging behind the world financial and technological management?
As for technology, it seems to me that we will soon lag behind not only as inventors (it is senseless to compete the rivals in this issue), but as ordinary users. Technology has gone so far that with our volume of education, we will not be able even to observe its process. Thus, oil is not the point here. We are lagging behind in the most important issue-creation of conditions for comprehensive competition. Nothing will be helpful for us, except for ourselves.
- Is everything so bad?
- Not, not everything. Fortunately, there are good trends as well. Whatever they say, the mass upgrading of infrastructure throughout the country is a good advantage and a necessary area for development of the non-oil economy. By the way, it is an expensive pleasure, affordable for few people throughout the world.
I support the aggressive investment policy of SOCAR abroad. It is a right policy in all senses. Such steadfast attention of the head of state to the regional development and unloading of Baku seems also timely to me. I hope the situation will facilitate following the launching of road infrastructures in the city and highways.
Country's transformation into a regional leader may also give long-term dividends and contribution of powers is doubtless in this issue.
However, we should not make this success a flag and use it every time. If we do not pay attention to problems, they will even increase and become more difficult to settle.
/Day.Az/
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