The likelihood of renewed military clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan is currently low, according to a recent report by international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings, Azernews reports.

In its latest country risk assessment, Fitch highlights that although the final peace agreement has not yet been signed, both countries made significant progress by agreeing on the draft text of a peace treaty in March 2025. However, the report notes that the content of the agreement and the exact timeline for its signing remain uncertain.

“The probability of a return to armed conflict is considered quite low at this stage,” Fitch stated in the report.

This assessment aligns with recent diplomatic developments. On July 10, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Abu Dhabi for high-level talks. The meeting was described as constructive and focused on key elements of the peace agenda, including border delimitation, the opening and development of the Zangazur Corridor, and the formalization of the peace treaty.

The two sides reportedly reached mutual understanding on continuing negotiations through various working groups and at more senior diplomatic levels.

The ongoing dialogue and engagement between the parties, combined with international support for a lasting resolution, are contributing factors behind Fitch’s positive assessment of regional stability.