by Ulvi Nariman

The recent dismissal of Michel Barnier as French Prime Minister, following a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly, has marked a significant turning point in France's political landscape. While this development underscores Emmanuel Macron's dwindling influence, it also sheds light on the trajectory of French foreign policy under his administration—particularly in relation to Azerbaijan.

Barnier, a close ally of Macron, has been a prominent figure in shaping France’s pro-Armenian stance. His ties to the Armenian lobby, as well as his controversial visits to Garabagh during Azerbaijan’s territorial occupation, highlight his unwavering alignment with separatist factions. In 2021, for instance, Barnier, accompanied by former presidential candidate Valérie Pécresse, illegally traveled to Garabagh and held meetings with separatist leaders, overtly supporting their cause.

Macron-Driven Policy: He might be next!

At the heart of the Paris-Baku tension lies Macron himself. As France’s president, he holds the ultimate authority in defining foreign policy and forming governments. His administration’s consistent pro-Armenian stance—exemplified by Barnier’s actions—has alienated Azerbaijan and created a strained bilateral relationship. Even with Barnier’s dismissal, expectations for a shift in foreign policy remain unrealistic, given Macron’s overarching influence.

The current situation reflects deeper systemic issues in Macron’s leadership. The no-confidence vote against Barnier’s government follows the dissolution of parliament earlier this year, marking another political debacle for the president. Critics, including Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Front party, have not held back in pointing fingers at Macron, calling for his resignation. Le Pen emphasized that the crisis is emblematic of Macron’s seven years of failed leadership, which has left France grappling with instability both domestically and internationally.

In the big picture, Barnier's replacement is unlikely to lead to a significant change in policy. Macron’s administration has consistently used its platform in international organizations, including the EU, to criticize Azerbaijan. Barnier’s close relationship with the Armenian lobby only amplified this trend, solidifying France’s role as a key advocate for Armenian interests.

Barnier’s actions—including his illegal visits to Garabagh and overt support for separatist leaders—have left an indelible mark on Azerbaijan-France relations.

The political turmoil surrounding Barnier’s dismissal not only signals Macron’s weakening grip on governance but also raises questions about France’s strategic direction. Macron’s inability to stabilize his government or foster effective diplomacy has placed France in a precarious position on the global stage. As the French leader faces mounting domestic criticism, the implications of his policies—both at home and abroad—continue to reverberate.

With Barnier’s departure, France must navigate its way through a period of uncertainty, one that could redefine its relations with Azerbaijan and reshape its foreign policy priorities. However, as long as Macron remains at the helm, a substantial shift appears unlikely!