Hottest weather forecast for next five years

/By Azernews/

By Amina Nazarli

The warmth of summer will soon embrace us, and many wonder whether temperature increase will be so much higher than the previous year.

Last July was the hottest month ever recorded across the globe since records began in 1880, according to the U.S. National Environmental Information Center. Then, the average temperature across all land and sea surfaces was 16.61°C, surpassing the record set in 1998 by 0.08°C, which is 0.81°C (1.46°F) above the 20th century average.

A recent research conducted by a team of British scientists revealed that the next five years could be the hottest on record across the globe.

Global temperatures will continue to soar over the next 12 months as rising levels of greenhouse gas emissions and El Nino, an irregularly periodical variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, continue to bring more record-breaking warmth to the planet.

“We cannot say exactly how warm it will get but there is no doubt the overall upward trend of temperatures will continue,” the Guardian quoted Doug Smith, a Met Office expert on long-term forecasting, as saying.

“We cannot say exactly how hot 2018, 2019 or 2020 will be. That will depend on other variables. But the general trend is going to be upwards.”

Local experts also expect 2016 to be even hotter than 2015, the warmest year on record.

Maharram Hasanov, the head of the Geography Institute at the Azerbaijani National Academy of Sciences, noted that the studies covering period from 1991 to 2012 show that temperature throughout Azerbaijan increased by 0.5-0.6 C, while precipitation decreased by 15-89 mm.

“In recent years, the air temperature increased by 1.5 degrees worldwide, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s climate data for 1961-1990,” he said, adding that long-term observations show that the temperature has become higher and precipitation rarely globally.

As for the weather changes in the country, Hasanov said the warm weather in January and February is not something new for Azerbaijan.

“If to assume the average monthly temperature, it will match the norm. The warm weather, which is observed in these months, can not be associated with global warming,” he said.

Chairman of Azerbaijan Green Movement Farida Huseynova, in turn, believes that it’s early to predict what the weather will be this year.

However, she admits that climate change is obvious, as winters now are shorter, while summers hotter.

“Earlier, the climate in some regions of Azerbaijan was Mediterranean. Due to global warming, the overall temperature in the country rises, becoming higher than normal,” she told echo.az.

Ecologist Telman Zeynalov also believes it’s early to predict what the temperature is expected in the coming year, as well as what the coming summer will be.

It’s still too early to make such strong statements about what the next year will be the hottest in history, the ecologists assures, however he does not rule out that the average temperature in Azerbaijan will rise up by 2.5 degrees in 2020-2050.