Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 revised up

By Trend

Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) has been revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y, to average 61.80 mb/d in 2020, Trend reports with reference to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report.

The revision was mainly due to new data estimating oil production for April and May for the non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC).

“Increasing global crude oil prices in futures markets since the beginning of May reflect the perception of an earlier-than-expected recovery in oil demand amid a reduction in supply due to global production shut-ins. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether US upstream investment can recover in the short term from the current deep cuts due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent drop in oil prices,” reads the report.

Upstream investment in non-OPEC countries in 2020 is expected to decline by 30 percent y-o-y to $321 billion, according to the cartel.

“Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in output of more than 2.95 mb/d in May (preliminary), while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside of the DoC declined by 2.0 mb/d in April and 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil production of these two countries is likely to decline by a total of 1.8 mb/d in 2020, y-o-y,” the report says.

Oil supply in 2020 is now forecast to grow only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia.

The absolute level of production of OPEC NGLs was revised up. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, following growth of 0.16 mb/d in 2018.

The 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. In May, OPEC-13 crude oil production fell by 6.30 mb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources. Ten OPEC MCs have agreed to adjust down their production from May 2020. Non-OPEC liquids production in May, including OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids, is estimated to have fallen by 3.74 mb/d m-o-m to average 65.69 mb/d, lower by 3.99 mb/d y-o-y. As a result, preliminary data indicates that global oil supply in May decreased by 10.04 mb/d m-o-m to average 89.89 mb/d, down by 9.18 mb/d y-o-y.