Irada Yagubova: "Results of the exit-poll can satisfy not everyone, but this is not a tragedy. The most important is that they should be precise"

- The ELS independent research center has been registered in the Central Electoral Commission as an organization, which will observe the elections and hold an exit-poll, questioning the people, who exit the constituencies. Everyone knows that the state of the organizations, holding the poll, is hard in Azerbaijan, as not all are satisfied with the results. Is ELS ready for it?

- We have a broad experience of monitoring elections. In fact, we are the first organization, which holds the fourth exit poll at the elections. In 2004 during the first municipal elections, we held an exit-poll in Shamakhy and Nasimi district of Baku. We held an exit poll at all constituencies during parliamentary elections of 2005 and repeated parliamentary elections of 2006.

Moreover, during the repeated parliamentary elections, we were the first in Azerbaijan to hold the quick-count (parallel calculation of votes) at the constituencies, where the exit poll was held and the results were interesting and they were immediately declared at the television and at a press conference and posted on our website.

By the way, it should be noted that after it international experts noted in all their interviews that Azerbaijan now has an organization, which may cope with holding the exit poll professionally, as it has both a trained staff and experience of work.

That is why, I want to say that we do not fear either responsibility or hard work. Our task is to be it precisely and timely and we have everything for it.

- What does the preciseness of an exit-poll depend on?

- It depends on numerous factors. It is important that the work is correctly organized, points, number and quality of participants and organization of their training are selected. Moreover, incorrect working out means incorrect results. But we are striving for maximally representative and precise result.

- How is the exist poll held and how will it be during these elections?

- Azerbaijan accounts for more than 4,500,000 voters and 5,148 constituencies. International practice considers it enough to question at least 100-120 voters at each constituency. The step which allows to select voters at the exit will help question at least 120 people.

A set of documents for each constituency will include 200 questionnaires, therefore, we will have no problems will a poll in case of high number of voters. Thus, counting on 140 interviews in average and considering the fact that we will hold the poll in 800 constituencies, we will get at least 120,000 questionnaires, that is we will be able to learn the opinion of 120,000 out of 160,000 citizens.

How are the citizens questioned? Two interviewers with a transparent box and necessary documents are placed at the exit from a constituency. Their names, surnames and other information will be provided on special cards.

They have bright green caps with the logotypes of our organization. They select a voter, in line with a step, pointed in the technical regulations, come up to him, introduce themselves, explain the purpose of the poll and guarantee the anonymousness and ask to fill in the questionnaire.

The questionnaire, which is filled by the voter, consists of several points - whom you supported, how the voting was held, why you have voted for this candidate, as well as demographic data: gender, age, employment. The last questions help assess the demographic composition of the active electorate.

- Is the direct poll held on the same script?

- Our officials appeal to a citizen, coming out of the constituency and tell him "we ask you to answer several questions. We guarantee the complete anonymity. We do not ask your name, here is the list, fill it without any witnesses and throw it into the transparent box".

Here most depend on the readiness of a person to this proposal and how free he is.

Here we are observing a great positive. In 2004 there were cases when people, seeing an interviewer approaching, ran away. Perhaps, this was caused by some concerns or because the poll was new for them. But in 2006 people came up to the interviewers themselves and requested to ask their opinion, and we answered them "Unfortunately, we have our own method and we can not question you". Most people have already understood us. A voter, questioned by us, seeing that he has the same opportunity to vote, as in the constituency, notes the same candidate, for whom he has voted.

- Why are the official numbers of the Central Electoral Commission and NGO data on exit polls sometimes different and sometimes the same?

- The Central Electoral Commission receives full data about voting of all 4,500,000 of people and we receive only a part. Therefore, they have more complete information. But our aim is different - we ensure equal conditions for repeated expression of will, ensuring result, corresponding to the reality.

- But it is no secret that exit-polls are usually not trusted...

- The results we get are real. We use methods, applied throughout the world, we apply the most advanced methods of processing, we carry out a hge work on selection and training of interviewers. It all allows to state that the results of our exit-poll reflect the opinion of all the candidates of the country, taking part in the elections. It is not my opinion, these are conclusions of most foreign experts, who are familiar with our work. On the other hand, every candidate consider that he has certain rating and he expects the exit-poll to confirm this. But, first of all, it is necessary to estimate our chances and our popularity correctly.

- Does it mean that all attempts to influence the presidential elections a-priori are useless?

- What are they needed for? The Central Electoral Commission must held elections so that they were no complaints. See, how many international observers have been registered this time. The Central Electoral Commission has organized all necessary trainings and officials of the constituencies have been trained duly. Everything was done for the elections to be held in line with the electoral code.

Yes, some unnecessary things are done on the spots. But there is a law, which fixes everything precisely and it is necessary to follow it. As for the results... I understand that each person considers himself a leader but the sense of reality should not be lost. Each time the exit poll causes complaints. Results of the exit-poll can satisfy not everyone, but this is not a tragedy. The most important is that they should be precise.

- Who will hold the exit-poll from ELS?

- We have 1600 interviewers  for holding an exit-poll, 220 supervisors, 120 telephone operators and 86 people are working permanently. All of them are mostly young students. They want to partake in this process, feel that they also build and form the civil society. And we are happy that this youth defines the future of our society.

Such polls are useful and necessary for people. They realize that they can express their opinion and that their vote is important and is taken into account.

- Don't you have problems?

- Sometimes, there are problems in the regions. But, we are accredited in the Central Electoral Commission and if someone creates hindrances in collecting information, we warn him that he will bear responsibility. After it everything is settled.

/Day.Az/