Expert links Armenia's recent provocation to planned meeting of Azerbaijan-Armenia in Washington

Recently, the Armenian media has been discussing the planned meeting between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington, the capital of the United States of America in the second half of May. Also, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has initiated the meeting looks remarkably vigorous in his actions and in his approach to negotiation process.

Besides, not only the West but Europe also seemed to be more interested to get looped in on the ongoing processes. President of the European Council Charles Michel recently had several phone conversations with Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev regarding the relations between the two countries and the status of the negotiation process.

The leaking reports also show that European Union officials are very zealous about holding the Azerbaijan-Armenia summit in Brussels in the coming weeks. Regarding the issue, political analyst, Sector head at the Social Research Center Ilyas Huseynov noted that there is a war going on in the diplomatic field in the region.

The US and EU intention of being fully involved in processes is quite tangible. This looks like a war in the diplomatic arena, which is in particular, about mediation and moderation. We have witnessed this war between the European Union and Russia for the past three years. We also observe that the USA is behind the EU, the pundit said in a comment to Azernews.

“In a number of cases, the USA, as a geopolitical actor, presents its mediation opportunities to the parties, and the last time a meeting was held between the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, within the framework of the Munich Security Conference,” he added.

Huseynov pointed out that the news about the meeting planned to be held in Washington with the mediation of the United States is regarded as a blow to Russia's positions in the South Caucasus. Russia's interests and presence in the South Caucasus are permanent and have strong leverage. According to the pundit, Russia's 200-year-old imperial interests in the South Caucasus can be cited as the reason for this. Despite the Russian-Ukrainian war, the presence of Russian peacekeepers in the South Caucasus and the military base No. 102 in Gyumri implies Russia's military participation in the region.

“Another important issue is that if the 102nd base leaves Armenia, NATO's expansion to the east may become more intense. As it is known, Finland became a NATO member against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and important negotiations regarding Sweden are being carried out. Turkiye's rightful demands should also be taken into account here. However, today Russia's borders with NATO are being observed on a wider scale. That is why, in order to reduce Russia's influence in the South Caucasus, the United States intends to join the settlement process here,” the expert opined.

Touching on the provocation committed by the Armenian armed forces in the Lachin District yesterday, the political analyst did not rule out the possibility of a connection between these two incidents.

“Military provocation took place in the direction of Lachin district after the information about the meeting of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia in the second half of May in Washington was released. I think there is some connection between this provocation and the news,” he said.

Ilyas Huseynov added that Armenia intends to gain time for itself by manoeuvring between various geopolitical centers, prolonging the deadline, and evading responsibility. During the past three years, all commitments are observed as unfulfilled by Armenia.

“On a practical level, however, no significant progress is visible. In Prague and Sochi, Azerbaijan's territorial integrity sovereignty was officially recognized by Armenia. The parties expressed their commitment to the UN Charter and the Alma-Ata Declaration. Later, we see that Armenia acted with territorial claims against Azerbaijan as well as attempting to illegally transport mines and ammunition into Azerbaijani territory,” the pundit added.